CAPE

I don't have much to add to what I posted yesterday. Still think we have a decent shot of something trackable in the March 10-17 window. Latest EPS h5 look for that period is pretty nice.

This might be it. If we gonna get one, it's likely in the 10-17 window.

Man it really does suck there lol. March has been way better than December here in recent years and as good or better than February. Good thing you have 100+ acres on the Alleghany Front now. You won't care much whether or not it snows in southern MD.

Yeah any cold or snow going forward is going to be more fleeting than usual. Got lucky here to have the storms aligned with the cold and during early/mid winter when the snow can stick around awhile.

First day of Met Spring, but yes it can still snow. I am kinda over it, but I wont complain if we get something like March 2018. Otherwise January was 'the month' of winter, as it should be, and it delivered at least for eastern areas. I will reserve an overall grade for another couple weeks, but December gets a D and January a solid A. Each winter month has to be weighted, and December is more of a Fall month in these parts and usually does not produce significant snowfall. February is easily an F, with less than an inch of frozen here, after nearly 20" in January.

low of 25

The 0z GFS managed to get a decent snow event through the region on March 10. GEFS suggests a storm moving along the boundary for that time period, but a bit on the warm side. The advertised h5 look actually gets better just beyond that time, so maybe the 10th through the 17th or so is our best chance for something. St Patty's Day paste bomb.

We can keep it alive here with beer talk. Sipping on a DFH Utopias Barrel Aged WWS. I liked it the first time I tried it, but even more now. As they claim, it ages well! I should put one away for 5 years, but there is no chance of that.

That period has looked favorable on the means. Doesn't mean we will see a winter storm. I have liked the March 8-12 window, but that may end up being shifted later by 2-3 days based on the advertised progression on the latest ensemble runs.

With the advertised pattern there likely will be no long trackers(probably a good thing). Still a decent chance something pops up around March 10th, but in general the 'good looks' on the ens means with the SE ridge flatter and the boundary closer have been getting can kicked a bit. Problem with that is we don't have much road left.

It used to be a pain in the ass (one at a time) but it's been multi-select and delete for a while now.

Where's Ji? HH GFS was a disaster!

It's all relative lol, but in general, better with age and experience.

Thanks. I just try to do objective analysis as much as possible without debbing or cheer leading. Years ago on Eastern I came across as too much the former for trying to call it as I saw it. Probably too heavy handed. I simply wasn't as good a poster then either, but most here can probably look back and say that. It was a different environment back then too, with no sub-forums and generally more weenies and model hugging (I think) without knowing/caring about the physics.

I actually did the beds in front last December after the last of the leaves came down. Stocked up on mulch the few weeks prior. Looks great out there and about 30% less to do now.

Going to put some fresh mulch down today. Chickweed is emerging, and the dandelions are perking up just off the surface getting ready to prolifically spread. Time to extract some (losing battle) but it feels good when you yank that carrot up.

Exactly. I made a post the other day when it first showed up on the GFS saying the same thing. This sort of a deal might work better for places further NE, but pretty low probability around here east of the mountains.

This has been pretty persistent on the GFS op runs, but it's an odd set up. Basically a glancing blow type frontal boundary with some colder air behind it, but I have my doubts about how far south it actually gets, the degree of cold, and the mechanism for any significant precip. Probably the most likely outcome is an uneventful brief cool down before we warm again next weekend. The 6z GEFS suggests maybe a light coating of snow, but not much of anything on the CMC ens or the EPS.

Fun times tracking another small scale event lol. As advertised it is probably about a 50-75 mile wide area of decent precip. At h5 there really isn't a shortwave, and the upper jet as advertised isn't all that favorable. Appears this would mostly be driven by the sharp temperature gradient across the Artic boundary with fgen forcing at h7 and h85. I am sure the models have the location of that boundary (and forcing) nailed.

Perpetual. Should be rapidly winding down over the next couple weeks. Love that layer cake off to the right.

That's a given. And you can have that a day or 2 before and after a paste bomb.

March 14 > 93 March 15 > 93 We aren't getting those though. I will take a storm like March of 18 over 93. This is an IMBY bizness.

It's a crapshoot, and it wasn't my idea to name storms after me lol. (well the Jan 3 one maybe given the crap pattern we were in at the time I got bullish on that window). The last one(the fail for this Sunday)I just saw as a sneaky chance with that trailing wave after the storm of last night went by and the boundary sinking south, with colder air in place. It looked promising for a few days, but as has often been the case this winter, the guidance was pretty far off on the timing and placement of the NS feature(s) at range.