CAPE

The AFC is tough with probably the 4 best QBs in the game. Only Burrow has managed to beat Mahomes to get to a SB to this point. Ravens need to find a way- which means not beating themselves.

Looks like its time to move on. How about Pagano? Hell of a hire imo. And less than 24 hours later, they part ways with Chris Hewett, long time defensive pass game coordinator and assistant head coach. That's no coincidence. If something happens with Harbaugh, Pagano will be the man

Either way, probably need to use one of those compensatory picks on a kicker. Tucker is on the downside. Maybe his mind was elsewhere when nailing all those kicks left.

That area also gets screwed because in addition to just missing on a lot of marginal events where it snows not too far NW, it often gets fringed on the sliders/coastal scrapers that usually come with really cold air in place and high quality snow. My yard isn't usually the bullseye for those but I get in on the northwest side enough to get some nice moderate events. That has happened a bunch of times since 2016 and partly explains why I have so many more warning level events(with snow on the roads!) than he has had up that way. The other advantage I have is my location is in the interior- I am not close to either bay, and also far enough north to avoid mixing/rain a fair amount of time.

Yeah if we get a similar pattern it's hard to imagine that massive southward displaced vortex would materialize again.

Ready for repeat

There continue to be suggestions on the ensemble guidance that a NA block might be in the offing around mid month and beyond. As advertised on this panel there is a -AO/NAO, in conjunction with a -EPO.

If the latest weeklies have a clue we will have quite a favorable h5 pattern for middle to latter part of the Month.

An eastward jet extension would also help position the ridge further east, placing the downstream trough more in the central/eastern US. That would be favored as the MJO convection propagates away from the MC and into the western Pacific.

On both the 0z EPS and GEFS, Feb 9-13 is the most likely window for winter weather to occur in the MA. Both suggest a storm around the 10th. Not much of anything prior to that.

12z GEFS with a better look in the NA at the end- Scandi ridge poking into GL with lower heights developing towards 50-50. EPS similar. Still need that shift in the Pacific.

Not bad. Juice it up a tad with a bit more of a cold press. As depicted its not likely going to be a big storm with the elongated shortwave energy.

12z GFS has a wave for the 6th.

Cold High building south from Central Canada. Potential gradient pattern for the days to follow.

Probably early to mid afternoon with/behind the front.

The 2 snow events and 10 days of solid winter in Jan- which was pretty much the whole winter- was nice. Otherwise, drought.

Not really a crap pattern, just not especially cold. With a big trough over eastern Canada and an EPO ridge, cold air will be lurking close by next week. There will also be some energy coming east from the trough out west, and possibly interacting with a little southern energy moving NE from the western Gulf.

Looks cold enough on WB at the surface and 850 for snow for almost all of VA, MD and DE for both waves.

For the chance around the 6-7th the 6z GFS has some energy in the flow underneath the western trough moving eastward and combining with southern energy ejecting northward from the upper low over southeast Texas. Nice wall of chilly HP to the north in the convergence/confluence zone associated with the NS vorticity.

The 0z GEFS and EPS are still hinting at a little something in the Feb 6-10 window.

The mean is fine. Much more useful in the LR as all of us here know by now.

In the case of the ECMWF the control is the deterministic. The post you replied to was intended be a more general explanation of how a control run is used in an ensemble system. Point stands though. The control/deterministic by itself with a single set of initial conditions integrated over 15 (or 46) days provides one possible outcome without accounting for uncertainty in the IC.

Snow and ice slowly melting on my stone driveway in areas that that don't get much sun, combined with some thawing but still frozen ground underneath, is making a rutty mess. All despite being in a severe drought here lol. Winter is just different.