CAPE

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

I could see this ending up a nice snowstorm for the western highlands at least. For the lowlands the tendency for HP to slide off the coast will just enhance the SE flow off the ocean ahead of the approaching low. If the phase occurs later and a more clean transfer to a coastal low occurs, there could be some frozen associated with that even for the coastal plain. The 6z GFS sort of hints at that.

6z GFS actually does do that to some extent. The ridge is broader/further east, the timing and character of the NS shortwave dropping down over the top is different, and the phase occurs later/further east

Well we grasping at straws at this point lol. Still far enough out that the guidance could be in error with the timing of the phase and position/amplitude of the ridge.

Now that all guidance is depicting a phasing of the 2 shortwaves, I think we need the PNA ridge (that is progressing eastward) to be more progressive- further east so the phase occurs later. No amount of temporary confluence out in front is going to help much with marginal cold and a wrapped up bowling ball with southerly winds driving warm air up the east coast.

Not likely lol

Without getting too much into 'that', I have accepted (esp in my location) that the marginal events that used to work are going to be mostly rain now(we shall see about a moderate Nino with blocking. If that doesn't work..). Thus why I root for PNA/big -EPO pattern and cross polar flow. Didn't used to need that- but now, maybe. Plus in recent winters those type patterns have worked out pretty good for the MA coastal plain. New normal maybe. Not a big snow pattern, but I don't care so much about that. When we do get the cold periods, I will gladly take cold powder moderate snow events followed by more Arctic cold and temps near zero. My idea of winter.

An extended solar minimum and a few major volcanic eruptions and we are good to go.

lol . That post wasn't directed at you btw.

Some of the recent posts maybe should go here- https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ Have fun.

I guess I should take some interest in this, since it is our next threat and potentially the biggest of the winter!!

It looks a bit convoluted, discombobulated, and confused. Been that way for awhile though.

Poor comparison imo. The period leading up to that had a west based block with a 50-50 low (in a Nino), which we can see the remnants of there as it broke down just ahead of the approaching storm- often associated with a KU. The height pattern progressed to that point a completely different way than we are looking at now. Plus the lower 48 and Canada wasn't a torch leading in.

Winter is better regardless. No bugs. Comfortable temps. Weak sun. Everything brown and inactive. If only it could last for 12 months, even if it never snowed.

I generally prefer indica, but it sometimes doesn't work quite right for me doing physical activity lol.

This is as far as you can get from ideal up top on the Atlantic side for MA snow. Completely inverted. I'm off to enjoy some fresh air before it gets dark.

I am having a beer, then a bit of sativa, then going on a nice hike. Get out and enjoy nature. Beautiful and peaceful, even without snow.

I am beginning to think a highly amplified but progressive pattern with much of NA devoid of cold is not the best way for us to get snow. More timing and luck than usual required.

We ready for a reload? I might get loaded.

Yes clearly the lack of available cold IS the core issue. My post is predicated on that. Sure the High has to move, but the airmass behind it matters. The flow on the backside of the departing High in conjunction the flow around the low matters. Especially when the airmass is barely cold enough to start with. More specifically, the panel where Ji was whining about no CAD didn't make any sense. At that point the low was on top of us. Sometimes you way overthink this stuff lol.

It's a mean and 7 days out. The general idea and placement of features make this a nice run. Getting enough cold air involved is likely going to be problematic to some degree.

Baby steps. Still a week out. There was a Euro run or 2 that got some legit cold involved.

Just ignore the surface temps.

Not hating this run.

I guess I was more responding to Ji and Psu than you lol. I was agreeing with you there should be CAD initially.