CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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There are multiple candidates to choose from, and lots of interaction. This one will be fun to track lol.
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So you are concerned the snow would melt? It always does Chuck.
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Improvement on the 12z GEM. At the surface it's still not much but at least gets a bit of precip east of the mountains this run.
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We are inside 7 days and the signal for that window is getting a bit stronger. But yeah a long way to go, and it's a clipper. Not exactly our bread and butter for accumulating snow.
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what this? You know I'd lock it up.
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One big difference between this run and previous runs is better wave spacing- really allows the early week storm to function as a useful 50-50 low for the potential clipper. A ton of h5 vorticity flying around so the run to run differences shall continue for awhile.
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low of 22
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Yeah roll that look forward a few days and we might just have a pretty favorable pattern with some chances for the last 10 days of the month.
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The general look in the LR as the longwave pattern reshuffles features a TPV lobe dropping down towards Hudson Bay and the EPO going negative. This would pretty quickly replenish cold air in western/central Canada. Also continuing to see indications of a ridge building into Greenland from Scandinavia.
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Euro has a distinct sharp shortwave embedded in the flow with the trough neutral/slightly negative. GFS has the shortwave, but the trough is positively tilted as it approaches the coast. Results in some nice upslope snow for the western ridge then pops a low well off the coast as the trough goes neutral. Mostly dry for the rest of the region with downslope flow. GEM similar to the GFS.
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0z Euro with the clipper action. Verbatim an inch or 2 for the northern tier and flakes in the air for many.
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High of 37 after a low of 21. Need more days like the last 2.
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Somewhat disparate looks between the latest run of the GEFS and GEPS in the AO/NAO space at D15. Probably in part related to uncertainty with the MJO progression. Can still see hints of an h5 ridge building towards GL on the GEFS. Anyway, go Canada!
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I suppose we all have a criteria for what makes a good winter. Part of that is based on one's exact location, climo etc. I think most people here just want winter to feel like winter for the most part, including a few occasions where there is some snow otg.
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Agreed. That plus a little westward shift of the NE PAC low would set us up nicely for early Jan.
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There is still that little matter of making sure PSU's yard gets a little snow in the next couple weeks otherwise DC winter is screwed.
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Next Thursday the 6z GFS has some precip from an inverted trough associated with an offshore low that develops via the clipper shortwave energy. Verbatim its rain though.
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low of 21
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A pattern like that can produce snow though. I know you are hunting KUs, but to me any snow is good. Give me a few moderate events like 2 years ago and I am good. For the record I think the h5 looks we are seeing can deliver once we get into our more favorable climo period. What we don't want to see is a repeat of 1997-98 esp in the current climate regime.
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This is a better look for injecting some cold air into our nearby source region. Euro weeklies are similar for the same period.
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That trough is a feature of a Nino, but its position/strength can vary. Ideally it would be a bit further west, and that might be what we need going forward.
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Remains to be seen. Looks chilly on the ens mean, but not especially cold. For it to work it would take a sharp shortwave with some dig, inducing a strong low just off the NC coast. A lot would have to go right, but isn't that always the case in these parts?
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In years past I would have said faint or modest "signal", but apparently that word triggers some folks now.
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There are faint to modest indications for something on the ensembles for around the 7th. Given the advertised chaotic nature of the flow around that ridge, determining the actual location of the shortwave(s) that would be involved, the interplay, and timing is impossible at this range. Many more model cycles required before we can know if this has legs.
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Ridge position is going to be what it is based on the location if that GoA trough, which deepens with TPV energy dumping into it. Plenty of shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge then dropping into the base of the downstream trough, and that should sharpen it. It's pretty close to something good as is on the HH GFS.
