CAPE

Going forward, as I noted in the old thread, the NAO block builds westward into the 'ideal' location as the Aleutian ridge is reamplifying and that combo pinches off a chunk of TPV sending it southward, encouraging the trough to again dig out west. That's not a nice ridge bridge lol.

The advertised longwave pattern is conducive for an inland track with a secondary coastal low instead of a straight up cutter. The thermal boundary is closer to the coast for this period, which has not been the case much of the time this winter. Plus there is a very favorable look in the NA.

The general signal on the EPS (and CMC ens) for the March 4 storm at this point is an initial low tracking to our west, with possible secondary low development along the coast. GEFS not as much into the coastal idea for now.

Temps are fine verbatim given how dry the air is. The bigger concern would be weak forcing- might be tough to get more than pixie dust to hit the ground.

It would be the first best in many places.

We cant afford to toss anything lol. March snow counts, and it is often a better month than December. People hate the quick melting I guess. We can do that efficiently in any month.

This is big.

Someone should start a thread.

This window might be conducive for a wave ejecting out of the SW to track further southeastward towards the east coast as the Aleutian ridge becomes flatter and stretched- allowing for the trough to shift eastward some instead of being dug in along the west coast. The NA look is favorable. The op run went there, but only a weak signal on the mean at this point.

12z GFS and CMC both have some frozen March 3-4 timeframe.

This might be a case where a strong -NAO building westward actually hurts us by helping to pinch off a TPV lobe, dropping it southward out west. With the SPV weakened, TPVs are going to be migrating into the midlatitudes. Might have a better outcome with a weaker/east based -NAO here. If the Aleutian ridge wasn't stuck there it wouldn't be an issue. That remains the fundamental feature that has killed winter for the east.

At this juncture why post a bunch of maps just for the hell of it? If there is nothing to specifically analyze, just leave it. We all know what we are dealing with.

It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west.

Those tricky Canadians.

yeah baby!

HH GEFS is a bit more juiced up for this weekend with the weak wave moving east into the transient cold in place.

The 28th is closer on the HH GFS. That window still has legs, as the blocking is getting established and NS vorts are flying around.

I wasn't looking at it like that, but yeah that would be rather frustrating. A LR tool like that is probably wrong anyway. I'll bet on the --PNA still being be around.. we will probably be in the 80s by early April.

I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days.

I see @Cobalthas already posted it. My bad. Mine is a little funnier though.

This would really piss off some people here.

That's a negligible difference dude lol. Esp this far out on a smoothed, course mean. It has been pretty steady for the last several cycles. What's the problem with that overall look? Elephant..

Anything prior to the 25th has been dead for our region. Thermal boundary too far NW. No reasonable chance to get cold in our region with a deep western trough and no help up top.

That period isn't relevant. Colder air hasn't pressed southward yet. This is the timeframe where we could actually get some precip with colder air in place-

For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low.