CAPE

Started snowing here in the last 30 mins. Everything covered and coming down moderately. See how long it lasts.

It might be important that we all do this.

For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case.

The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling.

I wouldn't hate this hire if they go that way. Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales gets second interview for Ravens offensive coordinator job https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2023/1/31/23580442/seahawks-qbs-coach-dave-canales-will-have-second-interview-for-ravens-offensive-coordinator-job

3 runs ago lol GFS and RGEM may end up doing the best overall sniffing this one out.

The better wide view

lol what a thing to moan about when we talking an inch of snow as the upside.

Because there aren't any 5:1?

Dried up underperforming pos.. nope, don't need that.

Minor event, but is this possibly going to go the right way towards game time for a change?

Dover to SNJ bullseye lol

HH GFS getting it done.

The gloom and doom is pervasive. It will just engulf the new thread lol.

6Z Euro finally came around a bit. Looks like a chance for an inch in a fairly small area where a bit of an enhanced band may set up. You might be in a good spot. Overall the forecast for a half inch or less seems reasonable.

6z GFS

Chuckled a little at this from Mount Holly this morning- That brings us to the more interesting portion of this forecast period, but still not necessarily exciting. Given we have not seen measurable snowfall in significant portions of our forecast area thus far this winter, any snow might be exciting to some. As the cold and dry airmass behind the cold front continues to sink southward tonight, a wave of low pressure will track eastward across North Carolina and eventually off the coast Wednesday morning. As a shortwave trough approaches from the west, some low and mid-level frontogenesis may be just enough to act upon some limited moisture to produce light snow across portions of the forecast area tonight, especially to the southeast of I-95.

Rolling the currently advertised pattern on the EPS forward, the latest edition of the weeklies brings this look for the last week of Feb.

Enjoy the winter we have and 3 weeks of Spring. Our 6 months of Summer will be here before you know it.

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD- Accumulation wise, potential exists for a coating up to a couple inches or so with the best chances for accumulating snow being over interior portions of Delmarva and interior southern NJ (S/SE of Philly). Again, it needs to be stressed that forecast confidence is lower than average and if the wave is weaker and farther south there will be little to no snow accumulation while if it`s farther north much of eastern PA, NJ and central/northern Delmarva could get 1-3 inches of snow. SO, 0-3 inches. I'm pretty sure it will be closer to the zero.

Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc.

Yeah it's the retreating TPV lobe, and the cold HP associated with it is off the NE coast at that point. Still a bit of damming left behind, but with the flow around the backside of that high and the low to the NW, the airmass is quickly modifying. A well timed phase between the NS energy and developing coastal low would probably work for the interior (Canadian is close to this) but the progressive flow favors that occurring too late for the MA. The EPS has the southern wave sliding off the SE coast. Still far enough out for timing/placement of features to change.