CAPE

This was the right choice. HHH!

Lets look back a few runs on the GFS before more energy was dumping into the western trough in response the the amplifying EPO ridge because it cant escape west. What do you notice?

Yes. Only on the weekends.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, that area of low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes is a dominant feature, and the exact strength and position of that as the wave approaches will have an influence. A more suppressed track is possible.

Inverted trough look.

Just sharing a couple thoughts on the latest ens runs. I haven't had time the past couple days to weenie out over every run with you guys. You such a deb

Nice signal across ens guidance for an interior snow event at this point. Looks awesome for the western highlands. The -NAO weakening and retrograding/morphing into a Hudson Bay ridge may allow for low pressure to track further NW than we want, especially if it amplifies further west like the latest Euro run. The exact location/strength of the vortex off the Maritimes will have a major influence on the track as the wave moves towards the east coast.

Not the worst look I've seen on a surface map for a period of interest.

Have to admit, I skated past true failure here. A big disappointment based on the forecast, but still low end warning event. But yeah, an overall fail for the region as a whole and up there with the worst.

Not bad. Definitely an improved signal for frozen around the 11th in our area compared to recent runs.

HH a good run for places south of us. Usual adjustment.. We good! Eh, congrats NE.

Outside of that we have had offshore coastal lows produce big snow for southern/eastern areas when we have had a mechanism for legit cold(-EPO/PNA) and complete absence of SE ridge. Might be a new normal or base state embedded in there somewhere.

Your post made it. Epic. Now we can all gleefully glide into ultimate failure and put this wretched thing to rest.

Plenty of spread among the EPS members on low location for the 11-12th period. Not the strongest signal I have ever seen for a favorable MA coastal low track. Best signal for frozen in this window is to our north, again. Still time.

The best signal for a storm with some frozen in our area on the 0z ens runs is March 11-13 period. Fairly weak signal overall, but it's there. Strongest on the GEPS.

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

I keep it simple. The atmospheric longwave pattern is made up of ridges and troughs, the existence of which serve to maintain heat balance and conservation of absolute vorticity. The phase of the pattern will shift(and change the relative location of the troughs and ridges) largely due to drivers such as ENSO. At this point I still think the SE ridge is largely an effect- in this case the downstream result of a persistent upstream Aleutian ridge/-PNA blocking pattern in the Pacific. There are possibly other influences that contribute to the seemingly 'easy development' and persistence of the SER in recent winters. Not to be discussed in this here thread though.

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block.

I have become a believer in the Ji rule.

Different, but not necessarily better. Not crazy about the look at hr 222.

We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here.

Baby steps out west. Still huge differences.

Eh, still worlds apart from the Euro.