CAPE

A marginal airmass can work when there are certain features in place. HP to our N/NW, and lower pressure to our NE can get it done when we aren't very cold. Ofc that usually happens when we are in a Nino with NA blocking. We kind of suck otherwise.

Very weak signal for frozen on the EPS between the 20th-27th. Quite different than the GEFS. eta- that h5 look is one that could work if we are super lucky with timing as cold is on the doorstep.. otherwise with the typical bad luck, it's probably more of the same.

If the air mass is marginal, it better be dry if you want snow. And lift, significant lift ofc.

evap cooling >>>>>>> dynamic cooling.

Ya know.. bring that precip, and I'll take my chances with cold.

The troll job by @MacChumpwas masterful. Go Birds! (wrong ones )

Lightened up over here. Temp up to 37. Good to see that dynamical cooling can still make a difference between chilly rain and cold miserable rain.

Any significant snow reports?

lol I would take the 2.5" over my yard in a heartbeat. One of the few parts of that map that are in the realm of possibility, and would be a win.

GEFS has been incrementally moving away from improvements in the HL over the last few runs. EPS has only been slightly hinting. Without some AO/NAO help it's going to be difficult to get the actual cold air down here and shift the boundary to our south for more than 5 mins. The ens means range from slightly below to slightly above avg temps around the end of the month. If our last best chance is end of Feb into early March, we are going to need better than that.

It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though.

You should have posted this one. Weenies respond to the blue.

There is a stronger signal on the 12z GEFS.

Not consistent across guidance, and only a weak signal on the GEFS to this point. That said, the advertised h5 look starts to improve around this time so not out of the question there could be something trackable towards the 25th.

It was some sort of Nino, but I don't recall the strength. It was weird and the atmosphere acted more like a Neutral iirc. I don't think it was a modoki though. I brought up 2016 because of the NAO block, and it produced a big storm.

This has been the expectation. If we are to see a more favorable pattern, it would be the last few days of Feb into early March. Latest GEFS runs have the AO and NAO trending towards neutral by day 15, so it makes sense the GEFSx continues it.

Just a chilly rain now. Temp holding at 36.

Sleeting pretty hard now. Light coating on the deck.

36 with light sleet/rain mix at onset. Probably last 5 mins, but frozen precip!

As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products.

It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino.

Yeah the end of the GEFS run looks like an actual NAO dipole/rex block is getting established, following the GFS op. Good signs the last few runs. We shall see.

This depiction may very well be completely wrong on the 18z GFS at D15, but why would snow be possible given that low track on this run? Have not seen anything like that this winter. Should be mild rain with a weak pos High running away! Answer is (as advertised) a legit -NAO, with a 'captured' 50-50 vortex, and surface HP locked in. That low track would be further south if not for the awful pacific, and it probably would be anyway with a legit block. Op runs have been hinting -NAO lately towards the end of the month(also seeing it suggested on the ensembles). Maybe it IS still meteorologically possible for a NA block to work in somewhat mitigating a significantly -PNA, at least within a model simulation lol. Hopefully we will get to find out.

The advertised h5 pattern on the big 3 global ens means in the LR, in conjunction with the extended products going forward, suggests we may have one last chance with a workable longwave pattern. The general window looks to be Feb 25- March 10. Beyond that climo degrades and some of the extended products shift the pattern back to more of the same. That's way out there though. The general look at the end of the latest ens mean runs- Beyond that all of the extended products(CMC, GEFS, CFS and Euro weeklies) to varying degrees depict an improved look in the high latitudes for a time. Latest CFS is representative, and along with the most recent Euro weeklies, has the best look for the longest, but they are both prone to dramatic shifts run-to run. Without significant improvement in the PNA space, we probably need a formidable -NAO for 7-10 days to get a few legit cracks at something. This is likely our last best shot. Hail Mary time.

Still a hint of a wave along the cold front towards next weekend but the usual outcome of too progressive/cold coming in behind looks most likely.