CAPE

They were too far SE, and driving like grandma to get to the eye. Then they got there and were like "we are in the eye"!! Yeah, where nothing interesting is happening. Perry was the place to be- raked by the intact NW eyewall.

It did go through an ERC as it approached the coast. Probably a high end cat 3 at landfall.

Looks like the N eyewall just moving into Perry now.

30 second downpour here. I have started reseeding so dry is not so bad as I can apply controlled watering.

It's an ensemble based system I believe. For a seasonal/super LR tool, it updates way too frequently tbh. Some people think it's an awful model because it appears to be all over the place, but that is really just noise. If it updated once weekly or monthly like the CanSIPS, the output over a series of runs would be more consistent.

I see that now. Shocker. Here is the actual 0z run for JFM from TT.

That run looks a little different on TT. The anomalies on the WB maps sure look super impressive(and exaggerated) with all those pretty colors lol. Either way, the general idea at h5 is there- about all that can be gleaned from these models at this juncture.

I need to try that!

Less than a half inch is essentially nothing. Sure, that's possible. At least we are guaranteed to have a few heavy frosts.

My prediction is it will snow this winter, as usual. I will go out on a limb though and predict at least 200% of last winter's total for all 3 airports.

He is more interested in digital snow. As soon as the first actual flake falls, he is bored and looking at the latest GFS run.

87/73 Looking forward to less humid/somewhat cooler weather tomorrow.

Hard to function out there between the aggressive invasive tiger skeeters from Asia and the humidity. I can eradicate the natives in the early Spring, but these bastards can continue to breed in a drought.

About the same here. Soil is parched.

84 here, but humid af. High was 88.

Mostly cloudy today with a couple brief showers. Just under a tenth. High of 76. Currently 71 and notably more humid than yesterday.

Bone dry here, but I don't really care at this point. Less than 3" for the month, after almost 10 in July. I'll reseed the fried areas and water, and the days are getting shorter. Local farming is fine- irrigation is a major thing here.

My dream concert, even though they would never tour together: Killers + Strokes

Currently 97/73 in Minneapolis 75/57 here sorry, not sorry

Latest CFS runs think we are heading into a Nina.

low of 57

Drank a Simcoe Fox from Black Flag for 'early' HH. As usual, BF never disappoints. Rn sipping a superior Old fashioned, made by me. Bed very soon.

From Mount Holly AFD. Yup, about sums it up. A closed upper low will lift slowly toward the Canadian Maritimes and absorb back into the flow through Sunday all while an expansive, ~600 dam (+2 to 3 standard deviations above normal) upper ridge builds across the central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place tonight and begin to shift offshore into Sunday. The result thus far has been a superb Saturday under sunny skies, a dry west to northwest breeze around 10-15 mph, and below normal temperatures peaking near 80 degrees this afternoon. Dew points have held steady in the low 50s, with even some localized 40s, and has almost given the air more of an early fall feel to it rather than summer. For tonight, the west/northwest breeze will diminish to primarily 5 mph or less as the boundary layer decouples, though expect a southwesterly gradient component to be held overnight. Skies will clear and temperatures will fall to the mid 50s to near 60 degrees across much of the area, some 5-8 degrees below normal. If you`ve been looking for a night to give the AC a breather and sleep with the windows open, look no further.

77/53 Hard to beat a day like this in late August in this area.

It's time to start the incremental reseeding/overseeding process. More grass has survived than usual, so it won't be a near complete do over. Normally clover takes over as the grass withers away, but it has not done so this year. The key might be getting 10" of rain in July lol. Normal rainfall never made a difference.