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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.
  2. CAPE
    To me that's what makes it a legitimate atmospheric block with some staying power. Looks like it is evolving into a Rex(dipole) configuration.
  3. CAPE
    A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea.
  4. CAPE
    In addition to the 2 threats mentioned in my previous 2 posts, the GEFS is still hinting at surface low development along the SE coast leading up to PD. We do have trackable possibilities in front of us.
  5. CAPE
    In the near term, around mid month is still on the table for at least part of the region. Latest GEFS and GEPS runs suggest a low track further south than the EPS, which has a more NS dominant look. Temps look marginal on the mean.
  6. CAPE
    0z EPS and GEFS are more impressive with the -NAO. The energy for the potential storm that the extended products have been hinting at for around the 23rd can be seen in the southwest.
  7. CAPE
    Oh this? Miller A baby.
  8. CAPE
    Many won't make it. The few will see it through.
  9. CAPE
    BristowWx isn't going to make it.
  10. CAPE
    More of a -NAO building west towards Baffin at the end of the GEFS run too. Seeing the beginning of a legit block developing with the anomalously low heights in the 50-50 region.
  11. CAPE
    Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond.
  12. CAPE
    For those prone to panic, I'll feed ya. This is the point when h5 begins to have that epic look. Check out the NS and STJ wave action aloft, and the surface pressure. Just a few more days..
  13. CAPE
    Yup. Sign of a coach that really isn't in control in the big moments. Ravens at Chargers on the schedule next season. Harbaugh vs Harbaugh. Who ya got?
  14. CAPE
    I get it. But why does this happen so often in these big games? He is the head coach. That's on him. No excuses.
  15. CAPE
    'We just couldn't get to it'. Da Fuck? If you wanted to run it, RUN IT. These bullshit answers. He so needs to be fired. Never happen though.
  16. CAPE
    lol Harbaugh
  17. CAPE
    We already lost Ralph apparently, after his panic posting over a 'can kick' based on one model cycle.
  18. CAPE
    The Canadian has been more bullish on the idea of a strong west based -NAO. Maybe the better models will get there.
  19. CAPE
    Yeah I know better.
  20. CAPE
    Need to dry the soggy soil out so it doesn't eat the snow from below.
  21. CAPE
    These epic h5 looks don't always translate into actual desired results. Devil will be in the details.
  22. CAPE
    More like getting the leaves out of plant beds and throwing some new mulch down. I have a lot of mulch areas lol.
  23. CAPE
    Has Ralph already cracked? Haven't seen any posts lately.
  24. CAPE
    Nice stretch of dry weather over the next week or so with temps near normal. I'll enjoy it and get some outside pre-Spring work done, and prepare for the deep winter period that will follow.
  25. CAPE
    At this point temps are conceivably cold enough to snow, but most of the energy is from the NS. That is a function of the coupled PNA/EPO in conjunction with the developing -NAO, and the stretched TPV in between. STJ looks poised to eject some waves eastward beyond this period.
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