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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    This is the reason I am paying attention to the ens runs towards the end of the month- to get an idea how the pattern progresses as we head into the beginning of winter.
  2. CAPE
    Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever.
  3. CAPE
    I could see a little snow towards the end of Dec. We were close last winter, but ofc Ninas almost always find a way to screw this region, esp early. Ninos otoh, tend to find a way to work for the MA.
  4. CAPE
    I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state.
  5. CAPE
    lol Ji got it. Chill.
  6. CAPE
    Just having a little fun with EJ. The extended products are pretty much complete crap beyond maybe a week past the end of the ensemble runs. No one knows what mid Dec will look like.
  7. CAPE
    Currently 41 at 7pm
  8. CAPE
    GEFS extended-
  9. CAPE
    But you got EJ all excited with the "really interesting!!!'. He thought it suggested an early season blizzard or vodka cold or something.
  10. CAPE
    Maybe read the thread a little before making cryptic hyperbolic posts about things that have been rationally discussed several hours earlier lol.
  11. CAPE
    The EPS h5 look for that period was discussed this morning. The latest run looks much like 0z, which trended better from 12z yesterday. Not much else to say, other than lets hope we see a similar look when it can actually snow east of Canaan.
  12. CAPE
    A tenth here. Its pretty darn dry. We should see the Nino STJ start to juice things up in the next few weeks.
  13. CAPE
    High of 55 here. Currently 50. temps should drop quickly this evening with barely a breeze and a mostly clear sky. Could be a bit more in the way of clouds later. Might get near freezing here, but I doubt lower than that. Tomorrow night should be colder.
  14. CAPE
    36
  15. CAPE
    There is a tiny, sporadic signal on the means suggesting some flakes could fly during that period. Good bet for the western ridge with cold upslope flow in the wake of an early week storm. EPS is less bullish on a cold Turkey day.
  16. CAPE
    Over multiple runs on the 3 ensemble means, it appears the N Pacific is reshuffling into a -EPO/neutral-ish PNA look. I wouldn't mind if that pattern locks in. On the Atlantic side, it looks like any ridging in the NAO domain will be transient in nature heading into December. Something to keep any eye on, but for now the AO/NAO looks to remain close to neutral.
  17. CAPE
    EPS has been trending towards a nice high latitude look in the LR over the past few runs.
  18. CAPE
    Check out my profile pic. Pretty close.
  19. CAPE
    Admittedly pretty fun to look at at HH, with a bit of weed. Totally weenie tho.
  20. CAPE
    Here is one on mine. Funny read. Replies include one from DT lol. These dudes throw around terms/acronyms like 'downwelling kelvin waves' and WWB left and right, but its unclear if they truly understand the complexities/ ramifications of any of it. My guess is mostly no. Hyperbolic for the clicks is the game. Comical.
  21. CAPE
    The advertised pattern for the end of the month into the beginning of Dec is one we would love to see more of going forward. Verbatim there will probably be some snow for the western highlands, and not out of the question that places just west of the Fall line see a bit of snow during this period. Looks seasonably chilly at the very least.
  22. CAPE
    It's solid. Always easy to find too.
  23. CAPE
    Well there is some disagreement on the pattern progression. EPS keeps us on the mild side, while the GEPS is more like the GEFS but not as cold for the east. That said, we always know what he is gonna push.
  24. CAPE
    Seeing that TPV fall apart is a good sign. The last thing we want at this juncture is a strong, consolidated SPV, especially with a reflection at h5 in that location.
  25. CAPE
    Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.
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