CAPE

So many potential failures, er waves. Hard to keep track.

If the GFS is correct Central NC will probably have more snow for the winter than any place east of the mountains in our area lol.

South central US. With the mean trough in the west most of the time, they get in on some cold, and frozen with the boundary nearby. Plus that area gets legit severe weather. Literally nothing else appealing about that region though.

Snowflakes flying here now. 37 and blustery.

As advertised it has more to do with getting a healthy southern wave to finally eject eastward with a quieter NS. Probably more about improvement out west/shorter wavelengths, and some luck. This hasn't been a typical period of stable, sustained blocking, where it breaks down and we get a big storm. A lot of vorts moving eastward in the NS and flow has remained progressive. That has really been effing our chances. Still have a -NAO/50-50 on this panel. Nice look if it's real. There is actually another wave behind this one. Yeah its getting awful late though.

This has looked like the best period, with significant southern energy that isn't way late developing, and without NS dominance.

Modest signal for a frontal wave on the mean, as there was at 12z. Handful of members look similar to the op(frozen), as there was at 12z. There is some support. eta- there are 8 members that have the same idea and frozen in our region. The majority are suggestive of a frontal wave.

Still looks like wave 4 is our best(last) chance.

This is one way to defeat a SE ridge. Amped up ridge out west with cross Polar flow coming straight south, and a displaced TPV. NAO is so positive that the low h5 heights are displaced into the 50-50 region. Would it still work today? Pretty unusual setup, but might be indicative of what we need going forward.

@Weather Will Impressive lol. Might take a trip to Deep Creek in the next couple weeks. Might not. Spring mode.

I'm going go check TT GEFS. It might be better!

NA blocking works better during a Nino. NS is too busy during a Nina, so the positive impacts a -NAO provides are negated to an extent.

I have cleared most of my attachments from those days but still have this one, uploaded on March 6th 2015. Temp when I took this was around 2F.

Yep this was another anomalously cold March storm. Temps here the following morning with snowpack were close to zero.

Was that the super cold St Patty's Day storm? IIRC that was the one that had some ice on the front end and temps fell into the low 20s in the morning with snow and stayed there all day. Ended up with 6-7" here.

Love it. You and I are a lot alike.

The primary disturbances in this pattern are in the NS. Unfortunately the initial heavier precip associated with that is(again) a bit too far north. The secondary coastal develops too late and gets carried well offshore by the progressive flow. Betwixt, between, too warm.. The suckage continues for our region in general.

Great analysis by Rich Eisen(as usual) on the Lamar Jackson situation.

Looking ahead to late next week. Looks a little familiar. The legit cold is out west. This may be our best chance. The ultimate hail mary.

Once again the presence of a NS low looks to screw up chances for frozen outside of the western higher terrain at our latitude for early next week. There isn't enough of a mechanism(lack of UL convergence/ confluence) up top to generate any decent HP to our north with a cold feed. Very weak signal for frozen on the ens means.

It's like an impressionistic painting. See it?

I was actually just having a little fun with the HH run, and doing the Jaws thing. You should have just laughed and moved on lol.

Still want to see what happens here when we get an "ideal Nino". Maybe next winter. Outside of that, I generally root for -EPO/+PNA w/ cross polar flow and legit cold, progressive pattern, and hope for an outcome just like last Jan/Jan 17/Jan 18.

Not displaced far enough south. Thus the need for a bigger block! These wimpy fake ass blocks won't work anymore.

Check out the CANSIPS for next winter.