CAPE

Os be kicking some ass. Heading into the all star break on a roll.

You are going to get PUMMELED! dude.

Keeping an eye on the cells popping to my south moving northward ahead of the main action.

86 sunny and sultry here. Next few hours should be interesting. Glad I had an inch+ yesterday though!

Morning AFD on heavy rain threat from Mount Holly- Heavy Rain/Flash flooding: There are a lot of factors increasing our concern with the heavy rain threat. For much of the region, models depict precipitable water values around 2 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Additionally, the warm cloud layer should be between 10K and 14K ft through much of this period (meaning storms will be far more efficient with heavy rain rates). While storm motions will be slightly faster than what we`ve seen the last few days (generally 10 to 20 mph), but depending on how quickly the low lifts northeast, there could be potential for training storms as the mean cloud layer flow is expected to be parallel to the front for much of the period. Given the increasing concern for flash flood potential, expanded the flood watch to include the entire area. Although flash flood guidance is generally higher in southern DE, adjacent areas of MD, and SE NJ, concern is for flooding along the more flash flood vulnerable coastal and tidal areas.

The notably warmer oceans overall now compared to then was the primary point of the post. Still hoping for a moderate Nino, more CP based, for the test case.

Soil was very dry here until an hour ago. Doesn't take long this time of year, esp in the woods. Tomorrow should be a more widespread event for the region.

Right at 2" for the month. Needed this one today. Plants got a good drink.

It's been interesting watching the radar this week, with the outflow boundaries from one decaying cell initiating another one, and the process continues. The stuff that came through really consolidated to my east. Booming thunder still although the rain has stopped here. 1.05" for the total.

0.95" in less than 15 mins. Not bad. Some nice T&L too.

Nice tropical deluge now.

Had a quick downpour, but mostly its all around, as has been the case the last 6 days. See what happens in the next few mins..

Glad you are ok, and congrats on the clutch play!

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/

Os are now only 3 games out with the Rays losing 6 straight.

Oceans are a heat sink, and there is more heat so..

Didn't see it specified on that site. TT still uses 1981-2010 climo for SSTs, so that might be an indication.

There will be a larger scale mechanism for ascent via an approaching shortwave plus plenty of moisture streaming northward later this weekend. The result should be more shear/organized convection, compared to the weak flow aloft and subtle(localized) forcing triggers of the past several days. A more widespread heavy rain threat plus some severe potential across the area looks likely. Hopefully the 'have nots' can cash in.

You are east of 50 right? Probably less than half that on the west side of town/ towards St Michaels.

These cells have been pretty localized pulsers the last few days, but a bit more organized today. Still a miss here. About 0.35" since Sunday.

Just drove through blinding rain from Cordova north to Ridgely, now home and its gently raining with bright skies lol. Repeat of yesterday when I drove north from Denton. Maybe I can pick up a tenth today.

Just for the hell of it, current SST anomalies compared to early July 2009: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

The Os needed a game like that. Now go take 2 of 3 in Minnesota heading into the break.

Drove through an absolute deluge with that storm in Denton. Less than a mile north of 404 heading towards the town of Greensboro it pretty much shut off, with next to nothing from there. Completely nothing at my house lol.