CAPE

Temp dropped 10 degrees with the outflow ahead of the main line. Down to 65. Winds gusting, but nothing severe. Rain on the doorstep.

If not late this week then perhaps next weekend for a coastal low. Would be cool to see a chilly soaking rain with some wind.

Pretty interesting sounding on the 3km NAM for the central eastern shore(around Denton) as the depicted line is approaching. A general clockwise curve on the hodograph in the lower/mid levels.. decent 0-3km SRH. Modest chance for a tornado? Dry air aloft/ respectable DCAPE suggests a chance for stronger winds to mix down.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD- The model forecast soundings indicate low instability, generally under 1000 J/kg, however there is near 40 knots of effective shear. This is looking like a mid/high shear and lower CAPE setup. The timing of the convective band would be when the instability is maximized though. The strong forcing for ascent that arrives early this evening with the cold front may compensate for the lower instability. As a result, there is some risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with locally strong/damaging wind gusts the main threat especially with a low-level jet of around 40 knots. Overnight guidance continues to hint at surface flow backing a bit as the line of storms approaches. This would increase the low- level helicity or spin. In addition to increased helicity, model soundings show low-level 0-1 km shear around 20-25 kt. This could result in a potential tornado or two developing as these storms move through. The greatest risk overall looks to be in Delmarva and SE PA, with slightly lower chances elsewhere. Given the instability forecast to be on the lower side, convection should tend to be lower topped with a linear mode given deep south to southwest flow.

Slight risk for much of the eastern half of our region. SPC disco excerpt- ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast southward into the Carolinas... An extensive band of convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the southern Appalachians into the lower Great Lakes region. Modest diurnal heating ahead of this band will result in some destabilization. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected to develop from southeast VA into parts of the Carolinas, decreasing with northward extent to less than 500 J/kg across northern portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Meridional mid/upper-level flow will likely result in messy convective mode, with a mixture of clusters, bowing segments, and possibly a few embedded supercells possible. For the Delmarva area and northward, locally damaging gusts will likely be the primary threat, though backed surface winds and increasing low-level shear/SRH may support a tornado or two as well. From the Tidewater region into portions of the Carolinas, stronger instability will support a greater hail threat, in addition to a risk of locally damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. At least the southern portion of the Slight Risk area may also see multiple rounds of storms, with prefrontal convection through midday and robust redevelopment along the cold front possible by mid/late afternoon.

Late next week will be interesting. A bit of a split flow regime, and guidance will likely struggle with the ultimate outcome at range. Chance for a significant storm to develop along the SE coast.

Was probably 3 ft here on avg after the second storm, an all out blizzard. It was very difficult to measure with the intense wind. Maybe again, one day..

high of 84. anti-urban heat island here tho.

Still lookin good!

Yeah, it's time to disengage.

Very weak? And there was still snow cover on Xmas eve from the Dec storm, although it was rapidly going at that point with fog and rain incoming iirc. So there was snow cover for at least 6 days. The 2 big storms in Feb featured snow on snow, so there was snow otg again for a week at minimum. Yes Chuck, sun contributes to melting snow, esp when temps are above freezing. We ain't Maine dude. What did you think of the late Jan storm that winter?

Latest guidance is in agreement for a general inch(give or take) across the region later Saturday. Much needed.

That appears to be an excerpt from the CPC prognostic discussion for the 6-10 period, so probably not. I always include a link when I make posts like that.

Probably more like x 1.414. Impact likely offset by dilation though.

Eastern areas ended up with the latter(closer to 12 in most cases) due to the dry slot from hell and nothing from the deform band. I had 15 here. Still a nice storm, and I had one other minor event that winter, so ended up right around average. The overall warmth was hard to take though.

Sounds like a reference to the electrical grid in the South central/ SE US. https://www.serc1.org/about-serc A bit odd to use that in the context of a weather outlook.

35 here

High of 67 here. Low was 47. Currently 60.

Maybe a heavy rain threat this weekend with strong low pressure moving to our NW and an impressive moisture feed into our region. Really need a widespread soaker.

I watered the grass and some of my plants yesterday.

Same here. Next chance is Saturday. Looks decent on the guidance but plenty of time for that to disintegrate.

Drizzle here early this morning. 0.00" in the gauge.

I need me a part time gig at a brewery lol.

"Always a surprise under an upper low". Your area is one of the few 'haves' with this one. My sis lives in Glyndon and had a hell of a hailstorm, after getting some heavy rain this morning.

A few inches in the western highlands isn't far fetched given the advertised pattern.