CAPE

23 approaching 9pm. Cranked up the wood stove. Probably the last time this winter/early Spring.

I just took a walk to the back of my land into the seasonal woodland wetland area, which usually has a foot of standing water by mid March when I apply the first round of larvicide. It is bone dry. No soft or swampy areas at all. I am guessing the water table is still a couple feet below the surface down there. It would take a couple heavy rains over the next 2 weeks to get it close to breaking the surface.

Looks like the high will be 35 here. 34.5 now.

12z GEFS pretty much agrees.

I think the Euro probably has the right idea- no snow anywhere close.

21 this morning

Quiet in here. I am guessing HH GFS didn't snow on us.

51 Heading outside to do some Spring things before the cold and wind arrives.

Its here! March 1st. There will be a few brief colder spells over the next week to 10 days, but it looks solidly above normal on the means from mid month onward. Need some rain though.

The 0z EPS and GEFS are underwhelming for that window, then the pattern is trough out west, ridge over the east through the end of the run. Nice look for those who want Spring.

^I honestly don't remember that storm lol

Probably. There is a bit of a signal on the 0z EPS. GEFS is similar. See what the ens means look like over the next several model cycles.

Marginal airmass dynamical cooling deal. The storm will generate its own cold air!

Zachary Labe Research Physical Scientist (NOAA Federal) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability and Predictability Division Email: [email protected] CV Google Scholar ORCiD ResearchGate Web of Science RESEARCH INTERESTS — My current work explores the intersection of large-scale climate variability and change, extreme events, large ensembles, decadal prediction, and data science methods. In addition to academic research, I am very passionate about improving science communication through engaging data visualizations. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/26/us-climate-research-agency-noaa-cuts Target.

Eh it won't matter. The Models won't miss that critical upper air data associated with NS energy way out there. Maybe we can get another Jan 2000 surprise!

THAT CAN ONLY BE A.................... GOOD THING!! FOOL!!

LOL. Pretty rich coming from you. Stick to making your obs posts no one cares about.

Many are giddy about it. More on this here forum than you would imagine.

Orwellian times are here. Reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. (Jan 6th didn't happen).

We need to all have faith. Oligarchs know what's best for the masses.

Should have learned after last winter(and others) to be cautious about modeled 'epic' patterns. They often don't materialize as advertised and end up more transient than persistent. Our best pattern was in January and it largely delivered with persistent cold and snow otg for weeks, but could have been snowier. I wasn't as enthusiastic about the late Feb into mid March potential. I think there is still a chance for a sneaky modest event over the next 10 days though.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/curmudgeon

Pretty clear indicator winter is probably over if this is what folks are posting in the LR thread.

Not really. Even when there appears to be a decent signal on the mean, its a half dozen members that have snow for our region in the March 8-10 window. No real consistency from one model cycle to the next either. Still time, and if we get that absolute perfect timing it might work out. I kinda think there will be a smallish scale semi-dynamic system at some point that produces a few inches of wet snow-ideally timed overnight- and it will ofc be gone by noon the next day. That's typical March stuff. There is nothing about the upcoming pattern that suggests anything like the St Patty's day storm of several years back is possible, with anomalous cold and significant snow falling during the daytime.