CAPE

0.40". Still getting some lighter rain.

Absolutely pouring now.

Raining hard here now. A quick tenth. Looking at radar, doesn't look like it should last very long though.

Lots of orange/red on the doorstep per radar. Was outside a little while ago and it felt quite cool and stable. 60 currently. Radar returns suggest there are torrential downpours occurring though.

Not sure if the PDO is rapidly shifting positive, but good to see the SSTs cooling north of Hawaii. If the Aleutian low becomes a fixture (typically occurs in a Nino), the PDO should trend more towards neutral. The PDO phase is more of an effect than a driver- mostly influenced by ENSO, Ocean currents, and the strength/position of the Aleutian low in winter.

The focus is always on the macro at this juncture. Plenty of speculation going on. Another month or 2 no one will care about Strat water vapor content or QBO. We will be busy tracking D15 fantasies for 3 months. Cant wait!

This winter I suppose we will see if the -QBO can counter the increased Strat water vapor. This sort of stuff is all very nebulous, so we just can't know the overall impacts on sensible weather. On paper it can look like a damn mess, but a bit of luck and favorable wave timing a time or 2 and no one will care if the 3 month AO mean ends up positive.

45. Lots of lows in the 40s recently. Looks like a decent chance for some 30s Monday night outside of the cities with HP in place and calm conditions. Perhaps some scattered frost.

Yes it is. made that composite my profile photo a couple winters ago for good vibes or something. we were desperate up in here.

^shit that looks like my profile pic

Stratospheric chemistry is cool, but weather happens in the troposphere. I'll go with anomalously strong/ sustained HL h5 blocking as the biggest difference. And who really knows the complex combo of mechanisms/interactions that came together to produce it.

A lot of dots to connect there, but it surely had some impact.

Mostly it's the HL blocking. 2009-10 had an epic sustained -AO/NAO. He kinda seemed to not get that, which is odd for anyone who lives in this region and likes snow. A -AO is the number one index we want- high correlation to above normal snow in the MA, esp in the lowlands.

Went for an early evening hike at Tuckahoe. Colors are starting to pop over the last few days.

Yeah, consecutive Ninas. Last winter was the worst with a nearly stationary pig Aleutian ridge in a terrible location- historically low snowfall for a large area of the MA. The winter before featured a colder period where the EPO was favorable and some of our region got 'normal' snowfall, but it was a progressive flow pattern with lows forming late/offshore so NW/interior areas didn't do as well. A moderate to strong Nino should favor areas inland this winter, with probably only marginal cold available at times.

They just aren't very fun to watch lol. An ugly 4-2 team. Too many penalties and can't get in the end zone enough. Offense is not smooth at all. Not sure I like the Gus-J Hill tandem at RB. Maybe Keaton Mitchell will get a look. They better get it together for the Lions, who look legit.

1.07" total

0.86" from the stratiform rains earlier. Looks like a heavy line of showers heading this way now.

A Nino teleconnects to a mean Aleutian low during the winter months, exact position tbd. That 'should' cool the waters north of Hawaii to some degree , and move the -PDO more towards neutral, promoting the potential for +PNA episodes going forward. We shall see exactly what transpires in the AO/NAO domains, with the QBO phase and Strat water vapor likely having significant (potentially competing) influences. A crapshoot at this juncture.

lol same old Maryland. Started off 5-0. They will finish 6-6.

Someone fucked up. Guidance was pretty clearly depicting a precip dead zone out there.

0.73". Looks like the steadier rain is over. Probably some scattered showers overnight. Mention of thunder in the forecast, but not sure about that here. More likely to the east.

Classic weakening OV low with a transfer to coastal NC low, in a progressive flow. I might like it in winter, depending on cold air availability lol.

Pretty much the same here. The vibrant colors of last Fall will be hard to match. Best in years.

Nice soaking here. Good for getting the new grass established before it goes dormant.