CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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6z GEFS for the 2nd
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Yep. Surface up to 850 mb is too warm with that track. Ofc the Euro tracks the low off the SC coast for that window. Perhaps something a bit in between.
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Ravens felt dissed, and they did what they had to do. Best news is it looks like Hamilton is ok. Now on to the important game at home next week. Also, way too much MVP talk/debate. Annoying.
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And exactly one loss to an NFC team in his career.
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Looks like the AFC top seed is between the Ravens and Dolphins. The Chiefs have issues, and Mahomes just doesn't look right. Given that, a Raven's loss tonight isn't really a big deal. But they will need to beat the Dolphins at home next week.
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12z EPS still likes the 4-5th.
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A strong Aleutian ridge is a feature of La Nina. We in a Nino Chuck.
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I'm just identifying possible discrete threat windows each model cycle, and discussing the possibilities and trends. No bold predictions from me. My shining moment came in identifying the early Jan 2022 storm threat 2 weeks out when we were in the hopeless shit the blinds pattern. That was the CAPE storm. I retired after that.
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The 12z GFS gave us a KU for the around the 9th. GEFS? You have to squint a little, but there is a bit of a signal there.
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Its trying.
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Textbook for major east coast snowstorm.
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6z GFS for the 5th. Strong hints of a phase. It wants to drop the TPV hammer lol. Surface low develops along the SE coast. Looks interesting. Hell of a HL look.
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6z GEFS suggestive of a storm for the 2nd with possible NS interaction/phasing. EPS has it too but somewhat weaker and develops further NE.
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Jan 5 is the strongest signal for an east coast storm on the 0z EPS. A low develops along the Gulf coast and tracks NE to just off the NC coast on the mean.
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What this?
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Not binary. There are always gray areas. Nuance.
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Guidance seems to be picking up on the impressive amplitude of the EPO ridge, which exhibits a wave break, capturing NS energy underneath in the flow between it and the west side of the TPV, sending it southward. It's pretty exciting from a physics perspective, but it becomes more complex wrt getting the ultimate outcome we want. We do simple pretty well.. complicated is more of a crapshoot lol.
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The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol.
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We cannot at the present time. Eventually, we will.
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It's relative. There are simpler, clear paths to victory.
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Well.. It's complicated.
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It can work at times, in both Nina and Nino, but can also be cold/dry and too progressive. We often see a -EPO/-NAO combo advertised by guidance at range, but it never seems to quite work out simultaneously. Maybe this time..
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It is looking a bit more complicated now than a few days ago.
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Canada torch long gone by the end of the first week in Jan thanks to a very favorable pattern across the HL region.
