Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    33,860

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Turned out to be a crappy weather day here. Light rain moved in much earlier than forecast. 44 and gloomy. 0.15" so far.
  2. CAPE
    It still looks like around the 10th on the means for colder than avg temps to work to the east coast after the mild period. It could come on the heels of another storm that tracks to our NW. Pretty typical esp in early winter to progressively step the temps down behind multiple systems. Then we hope for that well timed wave.
  3. CAPE
    @WxUSAF kinda just ninja'd me by about 2 seconds lol
  4. CAPE
    Just a reminder for those who feel the can is being kicked- the degradation of the pattern on the pacific side has been consistently forecast and will result in a milder period for early December as the EPO goes positive with a -PNA, and despite the impressive -NAO being depicted on guidance. This period still looks to be pretty brief. A storm around the 5-6th should mark the transition, with colder air advancing southeastward behind it. The period beyond the 6th holds more potential for something wintry as the thermal boundary should be near/south of our region.
  5. CAPE
    Low of 28, then rising temps after midnight with milder southerly flow in advance of the next weather system. Currently 35. Looks like a quick shot of rain for the eastern third of the region this evening as that little coastal low off NC tracks north. Could be some 1"+ amounts right along the MA coast.
  6. CAPE
    The weather we see at the surface is largely a function of the flow aloft. That's how I do my analysis. Top down. Identifying areas of speed divergence/convergence, and regions of confluence/difluence in the flow at 500 mb is a technique to predict where areas of higher and lower pressure will occur at the surface. Looking at the Jetstream level above, and 850 mb level below will also provide clues. Ultimately identifying the location of the thermal boundary between disparate(different temperature/density) air masses is a key indicator of storm track.
  7. CAPE
    Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby.
  8. CAPE
    I fear it is.
  9. CAPE
    Kinda scary, but the key indicators look good as we head into early winter. I am more optimistic about Dec than a few weeks ago.
  10. CAPE
    Latest GEFS MJO forecast takes convection into phase 3 then kills it. Previously it was progressing into phase 4 with decreasing amplitude. This is what we would expect to see in a Nino.. the antithesis of a Nina.
  11. CAPE
    High of 43 Coldest high temp of the Fall so far Currently 41.
  12. CAPE
    UHI ftl
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    There are still indications for a storm on the ensembles for around Dec 6. As advertised there is a pretty classic west based -NAO with lower h5 heights off of Atlantic Canada, but because the Pacific is just transitioning to a more favorable configuration, cold air availability looks limited for this period. An OV track with some sort of coastal transfer would make sense. Highest potential for frozen would be places inland should there be a storm. We should get colder in the days that follow.
  15. CAPE
    27
  16. CAPE
    All the guidance says it's coming. Lets see of we can get the Pacific right at the same time. Good trends.
  17. CAPE
    The ens means continue the idea of trending the PNA positive (to varying degrees) by Dec 7th. They also indicate the EPO trending into negative territory just beyond that.
  18. CAPE
    As advertised this is a textbook -NAO. Higher than normal pressure near Iceland(weak sub-polar low), lower than normal pressure near the Azores(weaker subtropical high). Amplified longwave pattern with anomalous trough-ridge-trough across the N Atlantic. If that longwave pattern locks in for an extended period, then it is considered an atmospheric block.
  19. CAPE
    Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.
  20. CAPE
    Yeah its the same as the extended runs now on the GEFS.
  21. CAPE
    It used to be the shit. Lately I am not sure, esp for the coastal plain. Seems over here we do better with -EPO/cross polar flow. Doesn't always work out so well for the Fall line points west though.
  22. CAPE
    Ok now you are kind of ruining it.
  23. CAPE
    It is on the ens mean.
  24. CAPE
    The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.
  25. CAPE
    Pretty good post from you. More please.
×
×
  • Create New...