CAPE

That can work, esp for inland at elevation. My point is the bigger issue in the advertised pattern at day 10 is not the Pacific (it is pretty damn favorable-jet extension!!). If the NA was more favorable at that time (-NAO) the overall pattern would be more conducive to colder/snowier for the MA. This isn't a binary thing.

Yes. X though.

Being facetious dude. Read my recent posts. Nothing wrong with the Pac jet as advertised. This stuff is never 'perfect'. An extended jet is in fact a Nino thing, and favors a +PNA. Most seem to believe that is a necessity for cold and snow, so why all the negativity over extended jets? Possibly a lack of understanding.

Predicting the NAO phase 2-weeks out is notoriously difficult. Very low skill. That said, in general an el Nino plus an easterly QBO favor -NAO periods. Solar activity also factors in. No guarantees.

This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen?

Broken.

Is this a shit the blinds pattern? Pacific jet extensions are so awful. Good thing we have a ++NAO!

Agreed. And I am tired of trying to explain how a PAC jet extension isn't a bad thing in and of itself. So much parroted bad info from twitter(er, X ) I suppose.

I identified a threat to track 10 days out in a 'shit the blinds' pattern in late Dec of 21 and it ended up a great snow event for much of our sub forum. See? not pointless, and sometimes advertised 'shit the blinds' patterns(subjective) at range don't always turn out that way.

I thought you might be in line for that one when I saw the trajectory as it came south through Carroll and Baltimore counties. Knew it was going west of me. How was it?

1/15 3.1" (ended as ZR) 1/19 5.0" Total: 8.1"

Yeah I measured just under 5, but I won't hesitate to report 5. Easily lost a quarter inch to compaction.

Flood Tuesday Night A chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52.

Impressive band developing in S DE heading your way.

I'm going to end up with 8" for the week, and snow on snow. Little to no melting until Monday. Then we go back to who we really are lol.

Not too often do we have an event where every place in MD and all of DE sees accumulating snow.

Wind picking up now. Snow falling off the tree branches. Temp down to 28. Steady light snow continues to fall. Up to 4.8"

Rehoboth. Nice. https://www.jacklingo.com/ave-cam

You will need to take care of this first.

I was outside bringing firewood in, and the snow is notably more powdery. Getting a nice burst of moderate snow now. Small flakes but coming down hard.

You made an offer the other night that I simply can't refuse. My deck really does need staining.

The snow that's falling now is associated with the inverted trough. You can see how far offshore the low pressure is.

This light snow adds up especially now that the sun is lower, and the temp is down to 29. 4.5". Had I properly measured it would probably be 5. Outside shot of getting there. Looking forward to tomorrow with the wind, blowing snow, and temps in the 20s. Should have a deep winter look and feel. Will probably see snow devils in the open fields.

Done. Needed a new one anyway. Have had the h5 composite from 2009-10 for a few years now. It was meant to be good luck leading into a winter that ended up total shit lol.

The heavy stuff seems to be over here. Looks like maybe a couple hours of light to moderate to go. That period of heavier snow needed slightly colder temps. 4.3"