CAPE

HH GEFS is better

Would need DT approval on that.

Not gonna lie, I really want the 5-6th window to work out. Been tracking it for ages it seems, and it is still almost 10 days away lol. How great would it be to get a moderate event leading into what looks like the period with the most upside this winter.

Our epic winter period is right around the corner. Just another couple weeks. Hang tight y'all.

At this juncture there is no way guidance has the wave timing/interactions accurately depicted. We gotz time, as solution man just said.

Pretty decent signal for snow across NC.

There are 50 lows in 50 different places- from Missouri to Maine to Florida to halfway out into the Atlantic.

We just cant know yet.

It has been persistent on guidance for awhile now for sure. If it doesn't work out it will still help to reinforce lower pressure off of Atlantic Canada.

It's not bad, but plenty of spread, and a step back from 6z. Plenty of time. Still in the game. We just cant know yet. What did I leave out lol?

12z GEFS is more scattershot among the members compared to 6z. There are a few with snow in the deep south, and a few that rain on us. Most are in the middle somewhere, and some don't have much of anything.

Long way to go. The most recent ensembles(the big 3) implied a SE/MA storm with some frozen. The 6z GEFS was pretty damn nice for this range.

It is only briefly an omega configuration, and a bit of a sloppy one at that. The western trough pretty quickly undercuts and builds eastward underneath the central Canada ridge. An atmospheric block implies a sustained pattern.

More friendly reminders lol. Seems more like HE finally learned something they already knew.

There is notable improvement on the 6z GEFS compared to previous ens runs. Less disparity among the members, with the UL energy in a more favorable position over Atlantic Canada on the mean. Much stronger signal for frozen in the MA.

The GFS goes nuts with dropping additional NS energy southward and phasing it with the initial wave that rides overtop the amplifying ridge. It has a more amped poleward ridge configuration that allows NS energy to dig further southward- that would likely damp/suppress any wave tracking eastward underneath. The ridge configuration is different on the EURO- it broadens out with more of a bridge with the ridging out west over AK/W Canada, and has the NS energy shifting more eastward towards the 50-50 region. There is better wave spacing and it's less suppressive.

Or you could crack it open after a Raven's victory over the Mahomeboy-Swifties on Sunday.

Even if the storm around the 5th is too far south/offshore, as it strengthens and moves NE, it reinforces the 50-50 low and the increasing h5 heights in the NAO space- could set us up for the next wave ejecting eastward around the 10th.

@brooklynwx99 I will sacrifice the Feb 5th period for a stronger, more southward displaced vortex to help induce increasing h5 heights in the NAO domain sooner. Establish that block for mid month.

That answers my question then lol.

Surface low pressure a bit further south than we want on the mean, but not awful at this juncture. The wave interaction details up top need to be worked out.

@stormtracker How you doing with that 120?

It is the very beginning of our epic period. Would be nice to put another one on the board, but not the end of the world if not.

Might be too much of a good thing though.

For the storm potential for around the 5th- plenty of spread among the members, from crushed south to a track much further north. The outcome mostly hinges on the amplified Hudson ridge and how strong of a vortex gets caught underneath as the anticyclonic wave break occurs. If that vortex is displaced southward of 50-50, the wave moving eastward in the southern stream will tend to be suppressed southward or dampen and weaken as it comes east. If that vortex is weaker/further north, the shortwave can track further north. At this juncture, well ofc we just cant know. The disparity among the members can pretty clearly be seen in this panel-