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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's why I said neutral to slightly negative..
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, which is why I don't agree with it being a replica of the past few seasons...its better, save for March 2018..
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks like a neutral to even a modestly neg NAO to me...
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    None of the BS we had last season...we need to settle on a date and time to discuss what should be a decently wintery month of December. Oops.. sneak preview of outlook? We should do Monday 12/16, Friday 12/20, or Saturday 12/21, since Monday 12/23 isn't an option because Will usually melts if its too close to the holiday.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks favorable to me.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, not buying a slow start....have had my mind made up on that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Within a week...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seen @Isotherm lurking of late.....tis the season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    She knows, by this point..
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't matter to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I always release on Nov 12.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    11-12 for me. Isotherm next week.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the SSW providing the impetus for tremendous PV recovery coupled with a stagnant MJO doomed any prospect for second half blocking until............spring.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    People also lose sight of the fact that it was a pretty damn impressive year about 150mi nw of here.....this wasn't 2001-2002.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Having insight into the fact that the consensus forecast for a big winter last year failed is one thing, but claiming that there were no data to support such an outcome in the first place is incorrect.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...it was just so immensely frustrating that people treat it like one. Losing by one every night can be perceived as badly or worse than getting blown out with regularity.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good luck this year. I have really come to appreciate your work and have learned a great deal from it. I do not expect a blockbuster in Boston, so we agree there.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bottom line is none of us have a great grasp on the ling range.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would love some early season love..off from work until 12/9 starting tonight.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shift last season a bit se, and it would have been good. It has incorrectly gotten associated with some pretty awful seasons by people staring at the KBOS seasonal total on an excel file....but it really was not like those years. Don't get me wrong..consensus forecast of banner year bombed, but it was not an awful pattern...more a serviceable pattern during which southern New England was snake bitten.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree. 1) Things do not look bad. 2) "Ratter" implies a pretty anomalously bad outcome, which is never "50/50..its like declaring a 50/50 shot that Boston sees 100". Always silly.
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