40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I will say that if we do end up with below normal snow this season, which I think is slightly greater than a 50/50 shot, then I will need pretty overwhelming evidence to not go above normal snow next season. My area has only posted four consecutive below average snowfall seasons once since 1956.
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I know....I would root against it if I were you provided that you were confident of a -EPO. Neg EPO/+NAO if your most prolific set up IMO....problem is that I don't think we will keep a neg EPO, so you may want to hope the blocking lingers like the rest of us and take your chances lol
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Its not perfect, but the most accurate representation.
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Luck is involved in everything.....sports included. Its one thing to acknowledge it, and another to use it as an excuse for a busted forecast.
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I think you have a better shot for that than SNE....just needs to be active. You can even pull that off without blocking.
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2015 and to a lesser extent, 2005 more recent examples....hell, Feb-March 2011 sucked......prior to Jan 12 2011, it was on par with this season.
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Regression.
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This, at least sensible weather wise, has been a like a modified January 2009 stretch....bit milder and drier, but very consistent stretch with no thaws. I think there is value in avoiding bonafide thaws over a protracted stretch at this latitude....but the lack of antecedent snow killed it. As Will noted, most of the best winters have these stretches.....following the blizz of 78, we had like a month of seasonable cold and dry before a minor March event.
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This is what I have been saying....you have to go back to 12/28 to find a high not between 33 and 41 IMBY. TBH, I would not have minded this stretch so much if we had a decent pack. The grinch ruined the first half.
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It seems that way, but Scott is right....nothing record breaking, but once that PAC jet settles down, there should eventually be some anomalous cold. I am not as pessimistic on February as I was when I wrote the outlook, mainly given the SSW.....but we will see. I was hedging towards a Feb 2018 type month, but kind of doubting that now.
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Most of it arriving on the streets of the higher terrain in central VT and NH. 0.0 interest in that.
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I would not be surprised.....definitely at least one
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Yea....pellets on my deck.
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Coating of snow last night....strange.
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Garbage.
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Don't everyone all rush to post at once lol....so defeated.
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Lol P sunny, but can't rule out a blizzard....pissah.
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You are usually pretty reasonable.
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Anyone dismissing snow threats at this latitude in Feb is silly.
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I could def see pattern the first week or two in Feb like the one we are about to come out of, with a +EPO and neg NAO.....not great, but serviceable. And it may work out better w a little luck bc the pattern will reset. Probably less likely to see suppression at that point in the season w peak snowfall climo.
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I could see that.
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Moron. No need for that....seems volatile like DT....knows his stuff, but gets carried away.
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Yea, I thought the second half of Dec would have had at least one more event....but I honestly called for a boring January. Composite was dry.. also saw some SWFE, which has worked out. Been warmer than I thought due to mins, but that should cool off second half of month.
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I am comforted that scooter seems a bit more optimistic about Feb.....guy is a walking caution flag.
