40/70 Benchmark

Looks like 3" at home and 4" at work, here in Chelsea.

Man, the OP GEM would send Scooter to the old S Weymouth Naval station to sprawl across the runway lol....brutal gradient near Boston.

EPS is a bit too tucked for my liking... GEFS are perfect. GEPS are a bit too far east... I like where much of the region sits, right now....even a 75% comp in favor of the EPS would be near optimal.

Just my early guess...really shouldn't even be discussing aspects like that yet, so take it FWIW.

I suspect that at least from the ORH hills points east, this may not be as prone to mesoscale screw jobs as some other events due to that deep layer E fetch....you aren't so dependent on low level fronto near the coast, and mid level deformation as the primary vehicles for ascent. I can envision a scenario where everyone that isn't rain is naked from ORH down to Kev points east, and then anyone who is not under the death band and/or in a valley is in a great deal of pain points west. Higher stakes over WNE and NYS IMO.

Yea, I haven't even looked.

06z EPS looked a bit more tucked than 00z.

Its a great synoptic look....I'm just being unnecessarily neurotic at this range.

I mean near the coast...not interior. S of I90 AND INSIDE RT 128....

I should be bunned several times over for even going there,at this stage.....hit me.

Frustrating for the coast because that was a cold period....this is a couple of weeks later, which is significant around peak climo, so coast would far better if that came to pass.

I think that may have been an event when Methuen was noticeably better than Wilmington...more on par with Ayer.

I am scared, yes....had a lot of bad luck with snow for about 3 seasons now. On a grander scale, which is what is important at this range, all systems go for a storm.

I remember that event...I was just getting mobilized from the Marine Reserves...was commuting from Wilmington to Ayer for a week before deploying....there was like nothing S of the pike and inside rt 128, like a foot in Wilmington, and 18" in Ayer.

Load Blown South West...NJ and W CT get the hot sister, I get the red-headed step child, as folks ostracize me for complaining because she has a great personality.

Exactly....don't confuse that NE kick with a se trend, either....it can still tuck into the coast, but just develop later. Miller Bs can and do hug.

Oh, god.......that has the LBSW look. You would like to think a deep layer easterly fetch would minimize that, but not a fan of that look for a high-end deal. Saving grace maybe that the the low itself is not intense.

Looks like about 4" in Chelsea...bit more than home..

Great snow growth in Chelsea-Everett-Revere area...wow

3" S-

Yes...she gone.

This looks nearly as good as can be at this point, but my guard will be up for the rug to be pulled up until I breech the pack with yard stick in hand. I know why the usual fast flow of nina that often plagues our chances for big events may not be applicable in this case, but I'll still believe it when I see it. No issue with a 6-12", 8-14" type deal, but this ceiling potential is always hard to attain, anyway, NVM during a mod la nina.

My early pick for spot in SNE that you don't want to be for this.....CTRV. Easterly fetch is no bueno...downslope hell. Places to be.....east slopes of ORH hills and honorable mention to interior NE MA.

Ukie has been flukie....awful season. Tossed.

I deserve a few buns for this.....haven't compared charts, but this reminds me of a colder version of Dec 1992. Obviously not expecting 4" of QPF or near record coastal flooding, but wow...