40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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That signal was not as strong as the one for Tuesday within 5 days. I know that I never expected much from it.
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Yea, I was lumping BGM more in with spots like Ithaca.
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I get your point. I think you're wrong...and you should get over it frankly. I don't see fast flow as being prohibitive of a moderate 4-8" or 6-10" type of "payload" from an attenuating system in the face of confluence, abutting arctic air.
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Yea, that is what I figured.
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Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.
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I'll take the over on that. Highly doubt this ends up 2-4" in this area....maybe further south due to precip type issues.
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A prevalent model bias, in addition to not being aggressive enough with mid level warming to the east of the mid level lows, is to be too heavy with QPF.
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It was...couple of inches less. Expected...00z had like 10-12", which is usually too much for a SWFE....this 7-10" is more like it-
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I never bother to fact check him....guy is the human incarnate of GOOGLE. Whenever I am debating someone, and he takes the other side, I just immediately defer, tip the cap to the other party and about face-walk away.
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Whole run
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I though they avged around what we do...mid 60's. Must be from the rotting LES.
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KBGM is going to pull a 100" season.
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Finally a snowfall map that resembles la nina climo.
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The Maine folk are crabby after a two month pork job.
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I know exactly where it is....just north of that swath of fronto.
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Must be something out ahead of the main system, IDK.
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I saw that...downslope?
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Congrats, Caribou
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Yea, I expected it to be worse, but its not...you're right.
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Another trend this season, but good in this case...otherwise its 2-5", then washed away.
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I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong.
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Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in.
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Its a bit colder than 00z, 0C 7H makes it to about Boston, rather than S NH.....I'd hedge warmer on that.
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This is a pretty easy forecast...these are usually straight forward. Thermals will waffle, but just default to a climo forcast. Forecast 10"+ anywhere at your own peril.
