40/70 Benchmark

I would be careful about including PDO and IOD and that grouping, as well....I have already established that the PNA is relatively stochastic in nature and parts ways with the PDO fairly frequently. I think it increases the likelihood of such an occurrence when the the negative PDO is ascending, as it should be this season. As for the IOD, I have already explained why its not as coupled with la nina than it would have if the event had developed early in the summer, as opposed to lingering from the past two years. This is at least in part why it is playing out as I have said it would, with la nina stagnating and even eroding somewhat, as opposed to flourishing this fall. I think a situation like this is where the bias of certain posters is on full display because while assertions may not be without merit on the surface, there is a reluctance to dig any deeper because the simple conclusion happens to suite said bias.

Well aside from maybe the fall of 2009, there are always factors that are, at least ostensibly, against a cold and/or snowy winter every year, and given that we have already established that this year doesn't have the ceiling of 2009....sounds about right.

Yea, more of a risk of la nina were stronger.

I wonder why these images self-destructed? I hate that....

I'm going to sound like a broken record this fall, but this isn't going to be a climo-rip-and-read la nina winter. I am pretty confident of that. The atmosphere is getting out ahead of the ocean.

Not to that degree.....9 consecutive days of RECORD highs? They wouldn't be records

He was on the some obscure radio station this AM on my way into work...I was so giddy... I was like "STEIN"!!!!!. I wanted to call in for an autograph. The legend grows like his wisdom and he has no idea...

You gotta wonder if we glean anything from this epic western heat ridge with respect to winter. I am of the opinion that its not meaningless.

I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do.

@ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model.

Hmmm...

What it is trying to convey is the presence of a strong PAC jet because you have lower heights up by AK, owed to a very falt Aleutian ridge that is probably a function of a very intense la nina. Not happening.

UK is too strong with la nina....tossed.

The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina.

Then, there is the UK....

I'm sure you are, but the question is, will mother nature be? lol

I don't think December will be as cold as the French guidance would imply, but I like the JMA idea of a some neg NAO with marginal cold. Coast could have issues early on....could be like a December 1996 transitioning to a January 2003 look before the fun period gets more widespread...with ultimately a relaxation later.

This is what I mean about the 2010-2011 element....the guidance tries to pass the baton from a good Atlantic early on to a better Pacific in January.

My theory all along has been for a blocky first half, or at least first third, and I see this emerging as a theme among guidance. The French suite is particularly weenie, but they all have at least some NAO east, to a degree, early on.

French Kiss:

Well, I would just say it was a weak la nino and leave it at that because being N stream reliant is always a risk in weak el nino seasons. That is why you guys want them a bit more robust, like 1957, 1986, 2002 and 2009. Maybe the weaker STJ was exacerbated coming off of a triple deep la nina because the weak nino of 1977-1978 had a bit more of a STJ, but the main thing is you want a more moderate el nino. I think you will get that next year.

It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.

Early guess at December: