40/70 Benchmark

Was you primary analog 2007 or 1975?

Great work, as usual. We are largely in agreement, but differ a bit on how we arrive there. We agree that the seasonal PNA will be near neutral or even positive in the mean, but I favor PNA more in the second half. You also favor the most wintry period in January, and I am more December. I would not be surprised if you have the better idea there, as I was torn on whether to favor Dec 15 to Jan 15, but ended up highlighting December, while acknowledging that the favorable pattern could linger into January. Caveat being that you aren't that hostile for SNE in December....we both agree that the mid atl will struggle early. February will be terrible. Agreed. I mentioned some hope for March, but it is low confidence and did not bake in into the snowfall forecast.

Nice three year run of winters that was.

And that one screwed NE. The Jan 2015 event porked the mid atl.....you have to go back to Feb 2013 to get one that nailed the mid atl to NE.

Completely agree. We should see forcing pinned closer to the dateline for a good chunk of December, which is more reminiscent of an ep la nina.

I agree....I begrudgingly held off, which was tough with a several day string of 70's. I am all set with doing it twice.

I could see this winter ending up similarly to that one.

Largely basin wide la nina climo dictates that the polar domain is less hostile early on. By cold, I mean near normal or slightly below.

Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.

What did you get in 88-89 and 98-99?

Yes, but I could see us burning a week or two to begin the month...no pun intended. I think if Dec ever failed, then its rat city.

Very similar to my thoughts.

I don't expect it to, but if if did, my December call goes poof.

This is what I meant in that text yesterday.

Lo was 38.1 here at 7am. Dense fog this AM.

Its more of a +EPO. I'd take the Feb 1969 RNA all season long.

It was warm-neutral....not far off.

This week.

One of my favorite movies.

I could see early December being $hitty.

I don't buy the pig part for December. RNA, yes, but I think the pig gets pushed back.

It could be. I don't think the Pacific will be as consistently brutal as some expect, though.

I don't know about literal "record" warmth for the season, but the rest of that is essentially my winter forecast. I think I would favor February for actual record warmth.

I would take 2016-2017 and run. I had that as a secondary analog.

I remember and always use that.