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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is actually a pretty good match, too...albeit it also stronger.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I actually listed last year as one of the best ENSO analogs in terms of placement of anomalies, but I agree this season will be weaker with respect to ONI. Of course, its much more couple than last season, so it probably won't "act" weaker... Bottom line is that season should "look" more like a la nina when all is said an done, despite being "weaker".
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup, same page.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm excited about the future in general, but not imminently intrigued by anything.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, sell. I mean, maybe you could talk me into giving a flying one if I lived at 1K in ORH county, but no chance were I am.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't really look at it because it wasn't technically a la nina, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have some value as a potential analog. I also don't really factor tropical activity in much...its an after thought.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I was mentioning Nina events that had very negative PDO, but yea, those seasons had some PNA, too.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I believe so...he said health dependent.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It can be surprising sometimes...I actually forecasted a +PNA DEC....obviously the PDO and PNA are positively correlated, but not always. That vomit bucked of a 2011-2012 season actually had +PNA. And even when it is negative in the mean, there are more stochastic fluctuations that can allow us to cash in if they are timely. Of course, Jan 2011 had one such period. I know you are aware of all of this...just saying.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance. You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will go to the grave swearing that Jan 2011 would not have been so epic if la nina were weaker....strong east based la nina and modoki el nino events are rare birds, and it's why seasons like 2010-2011, 1955-1956, 2002-2003 and 2009-10 are so exceptional. It's about the location of the forcing, and if it is well placed, then you want it to be a very prominent hemispheric driver.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not professional ones, anyway lol Those days are gone for me.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its okay... I'd like the PNA ridge a bit further east and the NAO ridge further west.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The NAO and AO should at the very least not be significantly positive this season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of what does on with this next event, I feel good moving forward. Still won't be shocked to see plowable somewhere in SNE before Novie closes.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Garth and I used to do that...bar hope around ORH late night.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll probably be there until at least 6ish...depends on what others do, but I have no obligations that day.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where were you living exactly? December 1981 is the 5th snowiest on record dating back to 1956 for my area north of Boston. Logan airport had very healthy snows...17.6" for the month with about a 1' on 12/6. It does look as though there was a rather steep gradient, as Central Park had a meager 2.1". This is also consistent with my expectation...not necessarily that extreme of a gradient, though. Dec 1981 reminds me of Dec 2007 with that sharp cutoff.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    1981-1982 is aligned pretty closely to my expectations for the NE, though perhaps January and February maybe flipped from that year.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Phil from the cape?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jeff deserves like a 100" this season....talk about a porking last season. I got screwed, but not like that..wow. At least ma nature used a lube with me.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess if your goal is measurable in the hills, then its worth watching.....that isn't outlandish.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not excited about that. There should be a significant storm, but I don't think its much of any snow for SNE...as it stands now.
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