40/70 Benchmark

Well, they are more of a sure thing the further south you go....but I think the key for you guys is have some combo of an east based, weak, neg polar indexes, and some periods of PNA. 1995 had all of these, plus a beast STJ, which is why it was an orgie. I should mention that the bottom line is you need Canada cold to have a shot...no source, no chance. This is why 2011-2012 was such a train wreck.

I'll have to look at this more closely when I have more time, but just a couple of notes. 1 ENSO is an important piece of the puzzle and a good foundational concept from which to build an outlook, but nothing should be considered as operating within a vacuum....and as far as sample size goes, that is an issue with respect to everything. I think the structure of ENSO is too important to disregard due to inadequate sample size...now, maybe an argument can be made to simple bin them by east and west based, as opposed to central, as well? But what I will say is that I consider central based events as basin wide bc its pretty difficult to have a central based event not be basin wide...and attempting ro distinguish between central based and basin wide definitely harkens back to your point with respect to finite details and sample sizes. 2) I use some discretion as far as strength designation....for instance if two el nino events both have a peak ONI of +1.5, but one has an MEI of 1.2 and the other 2, I am listing the 1.2 MEI as moderate and 2 as strong. The intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is a very relevent and strong proxy for ENSO peak strength designation.

Nothing is a sure hand in weather, NVM seasonal forecasting...the moment that you feel otherwise is when you need to re evaluate.

Fair enough. True you have not explicitly said this, but some of your posts seem to insinuate as much. You think the Pacific will be hostile, and everything on the planet supports ++++NAO, so what in the world are we left to infer?

Even up here, near the Mass/NH border, I only mustered 2.75" this past December. It was brutal.

Like I said, jabs like this here and there are common place through mid September....doesn't mean the back isn't bending.

I expect that to be kind of theme throughout the cold season...been saying that.

Yea, the active stretch started with Andrew and kicked into overdrive in 1995, so we are about due.

We've kept all of last season's heat, and lost the active tropics....miserable summer meteorologically speaking.

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

The building codes are better, so we won't see the volume of homes rendered uninhabitable like we did during Andrew, but the damage potential is still greater due to the higher population.

We have at most another two weeks of summer left.....I don't need to look at long range charts to tell you that. Just like we can't have sustained winter beyond mid March. First two weeks of the month is fair game.

I have a friend from grad school is from Pakistan...hopefully her family is okay over there.

No chance we have another la nina next season.

One of the strongest la ninas in history? I don't agree with that at all.

I think it was Hurricane Danny that came right into Mobile Bay in July of 1997...only a cat 1, but was a decent little event.

My bad, complete "whoosh" on my part.

This honestly isn't directed at anyone in particular, but as a general rule, I wish there was less twitter regurgitation and more independent critical thinking. Its brutal.

No way. Do me a favor and quote me come December.

Anyway, I'll revisit this later in the season and have some quoting to do.

Of course there is some subsurface cold...its a la nina. But the fact of the matter is that the SURFACE has temporarily plateaued. Is it done strengthening? Highly unlikely given the calendar, but I'm not sure you or he realize how difficult it will be to peak at a strong ONI....again, NOT weekly....but ONI. And not all of that subsurface cold will upwell to the surface.....we've been hearing about these easterly trades for weeks causing upwelling, yet the surface just warmed rather significantly.

Yes, notice the past tense, as in restrengthened. See, this is a perfect example of why you draw the ire of some posters....you just aren't very objective because you like to cherry pick data as part of an incessant, passive aggressive assault against winter enthusiasts.

It does....depends on the season. Sure, it doesn't radiate as well at night anymore, but lets not get carried away. Falls have been very changeable...agreed.

Going to be some big coastals, too.

No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina? 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8