40/70 Benchmark

Leave it to Ant to run models on his old Atari to find a NYC track.

I'm starting to hedge towards a a more western track that bends towards the cape late in the game and decelerates before drifting away.....would devastate cape cpd.

Erosion would be the least of your concerns in some of these solutions.

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape, and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast....

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

Consider the impact of a system that grinds to a halt POST landfall...worst case.

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude. Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.

Noting a bit of a precarious trend.......here is an excerpt from latest TPC discussion. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north.

Ironically enough, this started as an extra tropical cluster of T storms, too...figures.

That is insane for this latitude...never see that. I wonder if its due to the HADLEY CELL?

Similar for the cape, but I am talking about the rest of us. There is a difference between NE and NNW movement.

Is it drier, more stable air inhibiting the system on the euro?

I agree on that.

Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right. Lol

That would be worse..Bob was skimming NE, this is being obsorbed NNW.

I could totally see that...

Who issued a First Call?

Yea, I don't see the avenue to acceleration.

There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact.

They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS.

I am really having less of an issue with a potentially ominous track. What I can't get past is this not unraveling on approach...I don't care what the models show.

Yea, I said the same thing in my blog. Late Fri night into maybe very early Sunday is window.

Same.

Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html