La nina has gotten significantly more east based...best match was last year and 2010 when I did my outlook, but its looks like right now 2017-2018 is closest in terms of structure.
GFS ensemble 500mb trends for Sunday PM...stronger ridging towards Greenland, western ridge axis shifting slightly farther west & the "50/50 low" lifting out a bit quicker give the shortwave room to breathe near the Northeast US. Perhaps some clipper-gone-coast potential here... https://t.co/udm7Sl4tIP
Tough call....I REALLY want to wait until December...I may hold off a bit longer because if its just 1-2" mood snows, then I can get away with it. I don't want to pay an extra month for 4 days worth of mood snow.
Big PV disruptions are higher stakes...higher risk, higher reward. What is modeled on the EPS is actually a safer, higher percentage play with a lower ceiling and higher floor.
The other day Judah was trying to tell me that December was going to be at least +3 in the NE because, like George, he is hyperventilating over the PV not doing back flips. I simply replied, "no it isn't". lol
What I also notice as a theme is that the vortex has been biased towards our side of the globe...you don't always need it shattered into 1000 pieces and flipped upside down, especially at our latitude.