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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    My bad. Better?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but think about it. November was cold and we nearly had a significant snow event. I would argue it has started early, but we just didn't really benefit from it because it was too early and for climo. Now December looks to break for a bit before reloading second half. Still on tract for the "early" start IMO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 12/2008 got going like the 17th...just as a point of reference. I had 2.5" on 12/17, then we got nailed beginning the 20th....I actually expect a similar outcome this month.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe this winter will blow and I will be totally wrong...would not be the first time and wouldn't be the last. But it far too early to even suggest that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should of read before responding...I see you guys covered this. People are just so on edge this season.....there is a reason I implied the earliest we would see anything significant this month was week two, and it may very well be week 3. I don't pull these time table out of my rear. Now, doesn't necessarily mean its right this season, but it was thoroughly researched.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    The first half of the month is not usually snowy...fact, not opinion.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    He averages as much in December as you do.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is too early
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Qualify it however you want. It was a good winter. You were wrong.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe I will be wrong, but not worried yet...waaaay too early
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree lower heights near AK will be an issue this year, but it's not going to be a 2012 black hole. PNA will be variable.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    You said the same, exact thing last year. Your default la nina opinion.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not the rest of the month. Wrong.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm messing around looking at past stinko la nina seasons...and I can't find a November that looked like this one. November 2011 was polar opposite, aside from some lower heights around AK, but not to the same degree.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing egregious, just relentlessly "poking the hornet's nest", as you would say.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxmanI know it's a good sign for winter when October-November flips from warm Oct to cold Nov....do you know what the exact stat is?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have noticed that...seems more useless nodes of late. Last January was perfect example. Not only ENSO that is being muted-
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel guilty...dirty even, but @Torch Tiger's trolls are kind of growing on me lol
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You still bitch plenty lol
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its tough to know for certain....the coupling often decays as the season evolves anyway, and always has. But I do agree that it is mitigating ENSO to a degree...that makes sense to me. Its just tough to determine when exactly to attribute that because external forcing sources have always intervened at times.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do not debate the merits of what you are saying at all.....I just don't feel it has negated ENSO altogether, and I know you didn't suggest that. I do think it can with meager events, but not so much in strongly coupled events such as this.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take 2001-2001, 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 consecutively if it would bring substance to your posts.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    In December, same here...despite current modeling, I think I will ultimately do okay with that look.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, despite any mitigating impact that HC expansion may have, I don't think that there is any doubt that this cold ENSO event is having its presence felt in the atmosphere. I agree RE last year's event, but this one, albeit rather paltry in terms of ONI, is very well coupled.
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