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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it would be a classic SWFE....oops.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Says that guy who posts every storm modeled past 120 hours.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, Amesbury down to Gloucester area...east of me.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEM looks alot like the NAM with placement over central MA.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grab a 40oz under that and just touch yourself visualizing the CAPE
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the seacoast of NH to sw ME.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, at this range it probably will actually develop...I buy that part, but its still whocaresville for the 95% of us that don't get under it.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I can't invest in that crap. Better shot of @weatherwiz appearing on the cover of Muscle & Fitness magazine then me getting under that.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    HRRR has it like 10 mi NE of me...I may not be in a bad spot given some sort of compromise. God, what am I doing....its an inverted freaking trough.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can't forecast those...all you do is engage in an ill advised game of the pin the tail on the delusion.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take that, but I'd almost feel dirty coming from an inverted fraud.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take my chances with some se ridging....the last thing I want this season is more LBSW. I am done with that...if I am going to get screwed, let it snow in Maine.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely right....it makes the use of analogs more challenging, certainly, but doesn't strip them of their value IMO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensifies in October, but TBH, it never stops....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfectly valid to think the winter will be awful...that may prove correct. All I meant was that fact RE the fall correlation to winter isn't debatable.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Were said facts always weighted appropriately into the forecast? No, which is why some were misses.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    My forecast wasn't cold, it was near normal. Your thoughts and opinions are worthless when they run counter to facts, as are mine.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data. If you would like to argue that this winter will be well below normal in snowfall, feel free, but it won't be because of how mild October was.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Time has already told....the months of September and October don't mean anything with respect to winter, whether this season is mild or not.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe...I am still optimistic. I don't think this will be a terd of a season. I clearly will have some dents in the outlook, though, which is fine...just learn from it and collect another year of data to incorporate in the future.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that it was a mild fall, but its tough for me to connect the fall pattern to the early winter pattern when the month immediately preceding the change of seasons was pretty different.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. We'll see what happens...not worth sweating that range, anyway.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree....if I'm being truthful, I expected some bouts of PNA this month and it doesn't look to happen anytime soon. I also expected some NAO help, which is also a miss right now. However, I still expect improvement before holidays and suspect that January may end up a bit better than I had advertised with this delay.
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