40/70 Benchmark

Reverse PNA....AKA negative

I already busted this month TBH...just how bad does it end up is the question. Hopefully we salvage the snow part of it.

I have bet against grinch from the start this season....I still think we get white xmas.

34.9 here.

That makes perfect sense.

Why do I care why how much snow the cog railway got? They were both like 10" above average for me with no real standout events...people speak about them as though they were epic, which is simply not the case for MBY. 1993-1994 was at least memorable...2013-2014 was not, aside from my dad dying right before the big, cold, dry March fail.

The warm up next week, but I don't think the cold lasts more than a couple of weeks, either.

Missed this...beat me to it.

Agree. Its transient.

Prob Jan 2015 was the last really snowy one.

The arctic certainly helps...it doesn't facilitate an epic pattern in and of itself, but it can render things serviceable in the shorter term. But to your point, I saw a post from Allan Huffman on twitter comparing the behavior of the MJO right now to 1994 and 1996 in that the MJO may ultimately die out after reaching phase 8, which may send us back to milder forcing regimes by about the second week of January. I do buy that...I don't think the colder transition is a happily ever after into weenie bliss. Its going to get warm again in January before any potential longer term changes take hold during the second half of the season.

The arctic actually looks better, though....cross polar flow...I'll bet it would be colder than the H5 composite implies.

12z GEFS look more like the EPS now with greater RNA and a more stout se ridge.

Precipitation looks to be normal for the month around here, so far...November was somewhat dry.

More notably, emotion, which it did not.

Hopefully we get the T Snow in Dec and the early April 1997 blizzard lol

Clearly its dependent upon the final 10 days.

We really need some storms.

I'll let it play out. H5 is def toast due to the extreme RNA....but temps could be somewhat salavageable.

I'm all for a 70 degree day....as long as there is an end in sight, I can live in the moment and get the final mow done...then again, I don't want my December composite to go to shit, either, so I'm torn.

I don't know...I never did figure out what the issue was, and frankly don't care at this point. I just circumvent it by updating the totals via cell. I'm pretty sure its the lap tops, not the system.

Once I write that outlook, I check the f&$# out for a few weeks unless there is imminent winter weather...its a really draining, tedious process. I wasn't trying to be redundant, but rather just getting caught back up on the long range.

Well, I'm glad there is a consensus....I wasn't implying that it was groundbreaking information, but merely sharing an opinion. I only started looking at long range guidance over the past couple of days.