40/70 Benchmark

Long term still looks fine..just frustrated over tmw. Should have seen that coming, so rough start to the year for me. Even Kev was all over that

That is off IMO...gives KCON like 2"

NAM gives me like 1.5". Will and Scott nailed this trend days ago. Kudos.

21 pages for a patch of black ice on top of hairy hog hill

Yay...Boooiiiinnnnggggg...Santa's sleigh will see clean pavement before skidding into the Merrimack upon landing.

2018-2019 facing the south, 2019-2020 facing the east, last year facing the north, now facing the south again.

It just never fails here....I'm in mother nature's turnstile bending over in every direction...last year facing the north, this year the south with not a tube of lube for as far as they eye can see.

I'm so sick of this event.

Great

You were def right for the most part.....anything over 3" is looking like a longshot here now. I def jumped the gun on Wednesday....once I really checked soundings and everything.

You guys see the UK ensemble got added to F5? lol I'm excited to announce we have acquired another model, the MOGREPS-G! MOGREPS is an Ensemble based off of the UKMET/Unified Model (UM) from Met Office. It is available under the 'Models' menu for pro users. MOGREPS maps are limited, but it does have a nice radar product, temperatures, winds, dew points, humidity, pressure and SBCAPE/CIN maps. MOGREPS is a 20km resolution, 198 hour, 18 member mean. It initializes with 4D-Var assimilation and has 70 vertical levels. Our MOGREPS maps are available from 12z and 00z runs and update roughly around 19:30z and 07:30z respectively.

I still think my area is likely to get more than an inch.

Yes....

Its a piece to the puzzle...but there are other forcing mechanisms. Maybe all else being equal, hedge towards MJO comps.

So the grinch is in tornado alley...fine by me.

Too bad we couldn't drop omega, forky and torch tiger on a remote island with no internet....they could just fantasize amongst themselves staring at the sun all day long...maybe add snowman21 to the mix.

Sucks that you moved to St Louis

Identical to 00z, just a bit more QPF.

Its actually better for me.

Wish I had double-weighted 1970 ...the only reason I didn't is because it wasn't a second year la nina. December Analogs: 2007, 2000 (x2), 1974, 1970, 1995, 2005 (x2), 2017 (x2), 2008, 1983, 2020

Funny, I right before Will posted that, I referenced Feb 1969 as an example of a RNA/NAO pattern that was better for NE than mid atl.

That was a great post....ever since you made that, I have noticed how modeling is aligning better for the maratimes and New Foundland.

Like Will said....you have to look at it in terms of probability because even the less suppressive regimes can still screw the pooch with gradient saturation. Each situation is unique, and we refer to past analogs to formulate somewhat of a conceptionalization to guide expectations.

That last one looks like it would be more suppressive to me.

I think some of that may be due to el nino seasons, which are more apt to produce down there when blocking is present because there is a more prominent STJ. La nina can be tougher even with blocking down there because its more n stream prevalent, which obvious better for NE.