40/70 Benchmark

Early Jan absolutely has KU potential....it was one of the two periods that I specified, although I like early March better.

Delayed, but not denied it appears.

Right...I know @Torch Tigerdoesn't like to hear it, but its the truth...regardless of how many weenies you reply with.

GEPS very similarly to the EPS trended a bit better.

Its trending better.

That was a mini blizz of 78.

That has the look of one of Tippy's NJ model jobs.

Classic Euro.

Kind of reminds of the event in January 2019....rain flipped to ice and snow from N to south, just before that arctic mother lode came in.

00z was pike north, too...this run a bit colder.

My favorite is when he regales us with tales of how is elevation will ward off the sleet.

Not this year, brother....I'm looking forward to Bryce sledding in mud, while @BostonWX in Milton measures in feet.

There were also back to back events in early April to close the season out.

Gather round my weenie friends, one and all, for a good, ole fashioned holiday circle jerk under the mistletoe

If I lived in S Weymouth, I'd be planning a trip to Tahoe for the holidays...give poor Byrce the white xmas he deserves

12z GEFS are a little better for everyone...N, S E and W. Looks reasonable to me.

The analogy I like to think of is that since the OP is a higher resolution ensemble member, it is very sensitive to all of the "noise" that results from the vast chaos in the atmosphere at extended lead times. Thus while the lower resolution ensemble mean is more impervious to all of that noise and can therefore remain relatively stable. But higher resolution OP must endure that deafening noise and it is because of this that it is less adroit at making sense of everything as it swings wildly in an attempt to see the forest through the tress, so to speak. However, once inside of 72-96 hours or so, hearing everything is optimal.

To this point, the GEFS are actually a bit colder and snowier than the 06z suite lol Gotta ignore the OP for now because its so susceptible to the "noise" at this range.

I highly doubt my area gets nothing out of all of that with the cold that will be nearby....maybe a just a couple of inches on the front end, but total rainers is unlikely here.

Yea, the OES is what porked me....there were also a few interior events that hammered ORH, which I also missed out on. I was caught in the middle...I rained with the coast, but didn't get the OES.

Reality will be in between.

4 hours from UML to my mom's in west Wilmington.

I listed 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as the two best ENSO analogs in terms of structure.

This is the alternative mode of trolling now that guidance has caught on to what will actually transpire.