40/70 Benchmark

GEM kind of looks like what happened earlier in December...with the -NAO conjoining with the SE ridge as heights crash out west.

Depends on antecedent. I never rained in March 1993 superstorm. The 15" of snow, sleet-slot. Inside of 128 rained.

What a kick in the jewels that solution is.

I doubt it will close that far south...especially in a la nina. I see it pulling a March 2001 trend in the future.

This is why I hate Miller A. Exactly....like I said, take high end off of the table, albeit still major.

I would have to imagine I would get some CF love on that depiction....may do like a BD with two areas of enhancement....one out west, and one just inland with lower level fronto.

I'd guess that jacks VA to maybe DC.

It looks to me like the PV injects energy sooner and further west on the GEM...like Montana.

I'd take it, but don't look for a true high-ender up here with that look. Better for mid atl.

That said, I don't think that will happen.

Yea, those solutions make me nervous because that isn't nuances, like will confluence let up enough for it to hug and go over the canal, or be strong enough to go over the BM....that is like "game over" prospects.

Grabbing and inch on the way out would make my weekend.

The 00z Korean was a 952mb on the BM. lol

I'm used to narrowly missing out in one direction or another.

I cleaned up in March 2018....tough time since. Two really good events since...Dec 2019 and Feb 1, 2021.

40.6.

This would drive me crazy because its on Xmas eve and I have been porked so much already.

TBH, if I had to pick one, I would take 00z......PNA and cross polar flow look a bit more robust. Maybe in this case a more robust PNA is worse because its west based?

I don't see much difference between the 12z and 00z EPS:

If I had to choose which rusty dildo to have crammed into my rear at the speed of light...it would be the GFS'.

I'm so sorry to hear this. Nearly a decade ago now I lost my dad as I was careering towards rock-bottom during my struggle with alcoholism. This place really is a paradox because as much as it can tend to foster unhealthy and neurotic tendencies, it was also one of the very few constants at a time in my life when I struggled to conjure up so much as a modicum of interest in anyone or anything. And it also represented one of the outlets that were so instrumental in my ability to rebuild my life, and channel my addiction into somewhat healthier channels. Happy holidays...hang in there, and think snow-

I've got news for you....99% of the people that frequent this place do so because they have a proclivity to do just this...myself included. Of the other 1%, .5% are Will and are robots, and the other .5% are Tip and lie about not doing it and/or project their tendency to do so onto others. lol

He means the tenor of the season...and now this particular episode of model consternation exacerbates it.

My gut on how this plays out based upon what I expected from the month of December when I did my write up last month....I think most of the region gets a significant snowfall, but it may not be pretty and it probably won't be a blizzard. White Xmas for most, save for maybe the immediate shore.

If its imminent...otherwise, I would just hit and run blog posts.