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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry, Jay. Hopefully you get an opportunity here. Must be why Harv bailed on WHDH.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm sure that's right.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally agree.....regardless of ONI, this is the most impressive la nina since 2010-2011.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO ultimately always self destructs...whether it be via the walker cycle, or the MJO...this is why the opposite ENSO state is favored from year to year, all else being equal...especially for stronger events.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll have to look back through my blogs, but I think I saw research that a SSW can excite and subsequently stagnate the MJO, and as fate had it, it end up constructively interfering with that la nina base state we have been stuck in that Hoffman alluded to. That winter was also during the blocking drought....an NAO would have changed the landscape of that somewhat.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the SSW kind of messed things up that year, but I know what you mean.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    02-03, too, no?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are weak el nino next year, congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @StormchaserChuck! @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this...thinking way ahead during the meteorological down time.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sucks. I knew this would be an RNA winter in the mean, but it's about identifying the periods of volatility...I identified December with respect to the PNA, and I was wrong...right about the blocking, but the record RNA had screwed us out of this month.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The mid atlantic forum is already 9+ pages deep into the January thread.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The fact that you guys are 9 pages into the January thread on 12/22 says all you need to know about December
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post.....there will probably be a mid winter reprieve, but I do expect more of that this season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree its a positive auger for the rest of the winter, though frustrating at present.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lucky the N stream was able to capture the way it did because the PNA ridge is a bit east of ideal.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't dry for all of NE. I had near 100".
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is OT....but I am pumped over this, so just a sneak preview into my thought process heading into next year. Here are the el nino seasons following multi year cool ENSO years: 1957-1958 1963-1964 1968-1969 1972-1973 (super el nino, so huge asterisk) 1976-1977 1986-1987 2002-2003 2009-2010 2014-2015 2018-2019
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...in terms of snowfall, just that it won't be horrible....not saying it promises a huge season.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    30s in my area....IDK about down there.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think this big NAO block validates the idea that this is not going to be a rat season...its just some bad luck that it isn't baring fruit in terms of snowfall at this juncture, but looking back through data, I can't find any ratter seasons that were healthy la ninas and had a significant neg NAO in December. I know some will say 1989 and 2001, but they were cool neutral.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't have to be snow around here.....especially if its the NAO that caves first.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is going to some enormous mass flux when that does indeed happen, and there is potential for a very large event.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally agree...zero doubt. The only way out in my mind if for either the NAO or RNA to relent a bit, which will eventually happen...just a matter of when. In the mean time, its like mother nature has us in a head lock and we are just waiting to be let go-
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean the illusion that its a panacea?
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