40/70 Benchmark

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It would probably stay more offshore but it would track closer to the cape i would think.

Right...cape track is more in line with my original idea from first call, which would send the coastal front up here.

Just now, dryslot said:

That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging.

Either way is fine with me....decent shot at deformation as is, coastal front if it decides to hug.

Just now, Not me in VT said:

12 years lurking in here, feel like I know all the major players, hahaha, are we going to run out of time with this west/more amped trend? 

No need to sit in the dark corner and watch....come on out and play!

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah throws some precip up here too but looks too weird for me to buy. 

I would be more aggressive west of where this implies.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Doesn’t change much in the end. 

Its better than 06z here.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I like to look and feel

Social distancing, please

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah places like BOS might be slow in the first 2-3 hours and then they'll go to poundtown tomorrow morning.

Yet another event in which I am probably too far in one direction....could see you and scooter getting like 7", while I get like 3".

I'm at peace with it, at this point.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z HRRR looks fine to me.

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya worst hrrr run in a while  meh until you get to eastern areas. 

I don't need to look at it...got a pretty good idea lol

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The trends at 18z were moving back to @ Bench mark or Just inside it , then every model but the putrid gf’s was chucked at 0z when they bumped East . For the 495 crowd we went from Weenie band magic to meh band . We’ll see where that initial banding sets up prior to the meat getting here but we are not in a good spot for this and last evening you were . 
 

I dunno what Direction next 12 hours will Tickle but this has been a back and forth for day’s .

I guess I wasn't that  unnerved by the EURO going a bit east at 00z BC I expected it, and likewise RE west shift at 06z. I don't really care about the GEM and NAM.

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Chuck me deep and call me sally . Just don’t like the track SE of BM ...

Its not ideal if you're looking to max out on ceiling, but I think that ship sailed a couple of days ago. Its fine for a light to moderate event that jacks CJ land.

24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

SE of benchmark , Meh. Back to se mass system with advisory for others still looking hopeful but not guaranteed. Lots of bias and spiking last nite before 0z euro and 6z suite .

I would anticipate this will tickle again in any direction the next 18 hours .

also the maps will tickle down by noon unless 12z tickles back west , if you can’t see that your too emotionally involved 

watch the 12z HREF and see if it hangs on to the 0z last nite look 

Not sure that is a fair statement....as far as spiking goes, we have a borderline advisory/warning event, which I feel like warrants spiking in a season that has yet to fully cover the grass in most of the area.

Get a grip-

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So held serve basically…

Yea, that is how I consider it. Off hours are always more amped.

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is still up in the air 

I don't think so.

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Another sh*t model.  When everything was mucked up they were all in on the west train/stronger system idea, now as things are becoming clear they jump the opposite way. Toss em for sure. 

The GFS correcting west is a big red flag for the eastern end of the envelope 

Just now, Greg said:

Just like I pointed out recently. 

If the euro slides east, then I'll be more concerned.

All of those models blow biggies

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Well UKMET is a miss.

 

Toss.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc looks like garbage 

Tossed.

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Clicking around some GFS soundings there are decent lapse rates over the interior just above the DGZ, even absent a MAUL. It would take much to really make the most of that.

Talk dirty...filthy, rotten even...

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s the ticket.

Writing long informative screeds online 

Combine a an innate interest in winter weather with OCD and a yearning for mindfulness and you get 33 page winter outlooks.

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meditation though isn’t wearing a brown robe and remaining still for 2hrs in a seated position. I do it while driving, in a meeting, in the morning while eating breakfast. It’s become part of my daily routine. But yea, mindfulness can be enhanced in a variety of ways not just meditation. It’s good to see folks get after it. 
 

One more earlier tick with h7 closing off and ema tickles a foot.

I have issues with impulsive control and attention span after years of booze and mental health issues, so in my mind, anything that gets me to focus and block out the noise for a protracted duration of time is a mindfulness exercise for me..focusing on not killing myself squatting well over 300lbs, and spending hours on end researching and writing winter outlooks does that for me.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kev Ray and Forky for the win? Of course tip for the thread.

Bout time I got something right this year. Tough getting there, though...I was really nervous for a bit.

4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I can’t meditate. Some people can’t.

And one time Peterman said “Morty, my stories sell these clothes” only for Morty to retort “Cheap fabric and dim lighting. That’s how you move merchandise”.

I can't either....so I seek other outlets/avenues such as my blog and exercise, which both really ground me and enhance mindfulness. 

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Very True. It’s why I always urge folks struggling with mental health to meditate. I know it sounds cheesy to meditate…but it helped me when I battled issues for 15yrs.

Not at all. It's a wonderful way to increase mindfulness, which is one of the pillars of an overall sense of well being and high high quality of life.  Enjoy the moment, focus on the here and now and don't allow anxiety to deprive you of daily Joys of life.

46 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I have schizophrenia I cant smoke that 

Biggest issue with conditions like that is med compliance. I have worked with that population alot and the psychotropic meds have some nasty, nasty side effects, unfortunately.