40/70 Benchmark

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It had never happened 3 consecutive before that....or since. Truly an anomaly....a depressing one for a young snow weenie, lol.

Anyways....prob not seeing 10" with this one, but can't entirely rule it out. I'd prob go 5-8" for ORH in this one.

I agree...the higher end totals are reserved for interior eastern Mass IMO. That's why I made that other graphic in my write up denoting that.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

From you to Scoots to ORH to here to Runaway to Wolf to RI

All 4-8” lolli 9-10”. Very uniform 

Agree.

14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I hope it’s not centered over Methuen. 

If Holliston gets 10", sure.

2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I’m getting 10” IMBY!!!!

Maybe a lolli to 15" where the wind upslopes off of the balk head a bit.

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Crazy how the entire of SNE is getting 4-8” lollis to 9-10

I actually cut back a hair...I was general 6-12", but that dual low limits this a bit.

Final Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/final-call-for-fast-moving-winter-storm.html

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It was a lot snowier than 00z.  

Cool...I was comparing to 06z.

I mean, it looks fine...just trying to clarify.

I'm serious, though...it breeds confusion.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

All you need to see.

I think you need to distinguish between "looks better aloft", and "this run was snowier".

Just now, dryslot said:

For you, Yes.

Point is, I don't see where it got better.

Same, exact solution as 06z in terms of snowfall.

Just now, mattm4242 said:

Sounds like BOX may be bumping up totals again, or at least narrowing the goalposts.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1479141805929103362?s=20

It just says updating, not increasing.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.

Surface matters sometimes, too, west of the cf...not as extreme, obviously.

Just now, Jenkins said:

Trying to learn more about FGEN products here. Would anybody care to briefly explain how to use the various FGEN products at varying heights to predict where banding develops? In other words, in a setup like this, should I be looking at 700mb FGEN, 850mb FGEN, 900-500mb average, 800-600mb average? I'm taking a wild guess and perhaps the layer which is the closest layer at which DGZ is located in?

Usually banding is just N of best H7 fronto

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That might illicit a response from a certain Met who corresponds to Harvey.

I think there is also some involuntary correspondence with a certain frightened woman named Christine

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We want that to optimize inflow.

The NAM actually had the opposite trend

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Only if the closer low becomes the dominant one sooner imo.

When two become one

Just now, weathafella said:

I'll take the meat please.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We want that to optimize inflow.

Yea, this is going to be less disjointed in the end.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I heard that.

The GFS is trending towards congealing the two mid level centers in the middle...check out this trend from 06z to 12z

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can you tell us who???

Everyone in Foxborough?

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Glad the RGEM moved a little west. Gets some decent precip over here. 

Some of these models seem to want to delay bombing until past SNE.

All guidance has it not closing off at H7 until in the GOM....I think that limits the potential for major deformation banding well NW, but it could give a quick boost to NE areas of SNE on the way out.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha, 12k jacks my old hood in Wilmington..9.4

Same with 3k...10.5

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Yep. That convective feature kills us.  Hope it’s overdoing it but we are now under 24 hours. 

Something like that may not be resolved until the 12th hour.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha, congrats Ray on 3K. 

Ha, 12k jacks my old hood in Wilmington..9.4