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40/70 Benchmark

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    January 2022 Obs/Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    3 hours ago, weathafella said:

    So let’s harken back to the gtg at Funky Murphy’s in Worcester in early January 2015.   I drove pickles to and back.   The pattern was progged to change big time but the wx that day was snow eating foggy mild drizzle.   There wasn’t much snow to eat but Worcester had a bit.  BOS was way down on seasonal snow and futility was on the table-must have been well under 5 inches at that point.   I pointedly asked Will what his best guestimate for BOS final seasonal total.  Pickles can vouch for this.  Will comes up with 53 inches.  Pickles and I are talking about what a bold call that was on the ride home.   Will was wrong.  BOS ended up with 110 and change.  Keep hope alive!

    I never waivered from my seasonal that year....it was my first one. I was taking some serious shit from scooter when things looked bleak in January...I think I had 80-90" in Boston. I was nervous,  but wouldn't budge. 

    I ended up low.

    Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

    in New England

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    You look good on that run.  I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason.  That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE.  Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.

    Its bc the model QPF is mainly from low level fronto, as it struggles with mid levels, which is usually what occurs near edge of low level QPF field. But we need the mid levels to get going a touch sooner in order to toss the moisture back there. 

    • Like 1

    Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

    ens_2022010512_ne_24h_sfi_SFC_60.png

    There's some good news I guess. Based on the 00z EPS, the extreme forecast index is okay for the AEMATT crowd. 

    This index essentially shows how unusual the EPS forecast is based on the last 20 years of the model climate in the 5 weeks centered on the date (the climate built by many model runs, not state of the climate according to the model). Values between 0.5 and 0.8 are unusual, above 0.8 very unusual or extreme. A value of 1 means that every EPS member is more extreme than the model climate. 

    The thing to keep in mind is that significant snowfall, even in the winter, is unusual. Most days it doesn't snow. But there is a signal for some significant impacts possible according to the EPS.

    Also note that this index doesn't say how extreme. It could be a little more extreme than the model climate, or a lot more extreme. That's where the black lines come into play, that's the shift of tails (SOT). A value of 1 indicates that the 90th percentile of the forecast is one times the distance between the 90th and 99th percentile of the model climate. A value of 10 would be ten times. A SOT appears when at least 10% of EPS members are forecasting an event greater than the model climate extreme. Say the model climate extreme is 6 inches and the difference between the model climate 90th and 99th percentile is 1 inch, with a SOT value somewhere between 0 and 1 (call it 0.5) this 90th percentile forecast would be 6.5 inches.

    Notice how the SOT values are higher and the EFI higher down around DC. That's because snow is more extreme in that area than New England, and more likely to be an extreme event based on forecasts.

    More like se MA.

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