40/70 Benchmark

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

Maybe 4-8" east, and 3-6" west is the best call right now.

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I have not had time to check in all morning. Should I stick with my C - 2” call for Greenfield? 

Gun to head, over.

There is actually a very good consensus between the 12z 3km NAM, 06z EURO and 12z GEM.

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I think 6-12" not a lock, but doable. At least the eastern third of SNE.  I'd put the odds  around 50/50 for 6"+ or <6" here

Yea, that sounds reasonable. 

Hopefully more clarity for tomorrow when I write up the final call. There is a method to my madness with respect to when I do these write ups because I am often an emotional basket case in  between

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You have the confidence/knowledge to put out a well written forecast with backing.        If it fails, you are able to explain why.    Few on here do either of those

I feel like I have been too trigger happy in the medium range this season.

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

you've become magnamomous in your old age, while I am trolling the trolls.  Uh oh, I'd better be careful - Pot.

Nah, I can be a dick with the best of them, but its just helps to keep an open mind.

Its just funny that I got bum-rushed yesterday for being "stubborn and arrogant", and now I'm getting push back in the other direction

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.

Fair enough. We'll see...I have another 24 hours to consider it.

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't he say he was more concerned about p-type issues than a whiff, without mentioning specific areas?

Yes.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Hard to give credit for random guesses based on the ICON and being butthurt about geography. 

I think its also important not to become extremely biased against people because then it becomes a pot-kettle-black deal with respect to trolling.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.

Well, I am very nervous about at this point. I said all along 12z Wednesday was a pretty big deadline, so I'm not sure why people feel like I am losing my mind. Hopefully it will trend back enough, but I feel like that idea is in peril at this point.

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

good call for something to be basically ots, which is what he said, almost 2 days before go time?  You can't be serious, he's a troll.

I don't remember exactly what he said, I just knew he was in the east crowd.

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.

Right, and that is what I needed to for the widespread 6-12" that I had. I think that ship has sailed. I'm not saying that we still can't get a 3-6" or maybe even a 4-8"
 deal, but my original thoughts are skunked. I'm not saying P Cloudy.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

Well, keep in mind I was originally thinking 6-12"...I think that ship has sailed. Sure, widespread 3-6" is still possible.

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Why? Bc a hugger that mixes which was the "most likely" scenario for many and it obviously is not happening, the biggest risk in my mind has always been good miss to the east.  Obviously we can still get a nice 3-6" out of this, but the East risk is the one that played out.

Yea, I said all along 12z today....not sure why people are stunned that I stuck to that. If I didn't, then the other people like greenmtnwx would kill me...can't win lol

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Small differences are the reason this season has sucked so far...in mind, I felt that 12z today was when we needed to see said changes, so I think this is actually pretty consistent.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It has been stuck in 7 for a long time

I was right about that....figures

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some tried to tell them and got ridiculed. I’m still holding out hope that this tracks bear ack but my original fears are still the biggest worry. 

I don't think I have ever ridiculed you, but I think if you are going to put as much time in to this as I do, its important to embrace the consumption of your crow when the situation warrants if you are to salvage any credibility.

Nice call.

Just now, MJO812 said:

I will give it to 0z but we can't get anything to trend in our favor. Hopefully we will get lucky when the PNA turns positive.

#phase8only8daysaway

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For S shore yes

495 , I wouldn’t bet that . Very much up in the air if that area reaches 2”

 I honestly don't even care...anything less than 4" is an unwelcomed nuisance to me.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is way east

That is a nail in the coffin for anything exciting in my mind.

Just now, PhineasC said:

IMO a significant west shift will be needed to hit all of SNE with 4-8"

Plenty of time for that still.

This season has been my worst display of medium range forecasting in all 8 years...brutal. Still time for the seasonal to work out decently.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yes, after 6z yesterday I said a track near ACK or the elbow. Obviously that may be tough to accomplish, but on the other hand, I'll take the over on 1-2". If I'm wrong, oh well. It's weather forum. I don't forecast.

Yea, probably.

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are you upset at all of SNE getting 4-8”? I honestly don’t get it 

I feel like that scenario is the upper bounds at this point, and that is disappointing to me. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I never expected a foot though. 

Pretty sure you originally favored a turn north over the cape as the low bombed....