40/70 Benchmark

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Can't account for micro nuances like that though. I think the trend E was real and things just materialized a little south.

Can it account for micro several year periods of 20% or greater snowfall deficits? Ir is there a line of bullshit to account for that?

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's compacting as it falls, but was 9.8"

I really need to regress due to your snow.

3"

3" at 9am

Some CJ streamers evident on radar...also, Corey's RI snow shield in full effect lol.

Scooter's lead fronto weenie band moving into this area. Gonna crash for a bit.

29.3/25

Overcast as we prepare to nowcast.

There is waaaaay too much short term data.  Its drives me fu&king absolutely bonkers.

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think that’s pretty common amongst us

If it sucks, then I'll just go back to sleep.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find a bust in either direction entertaining . I honestly don’t care how much falls . I know it’s odd but the following of the storm is something I have enjoyed more than the storm for a while, and the emotions .

As Tip would say, the cinema and dopamine drip.

41 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ugh not liking the trend on 0z NAM... eastern low takes over earlier. Still decent hit on eSNE but much less than possible.

Who cares at this point. Just watch the radar

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s definitely all about the convection. Those uglier RAP runs and HRRR runs are chasing. We’ll know how real it is later this evening. 

IMHO, if guidance is still reversing trends this late in the game, its simply going to be a nowcast aspect that models can not resolve. This doesn't necessarily mean it works out favorably either...its not a weenieism to ignore unfavorable trends, but rather an acknowledgement that if it's not resolved at 10 hours lead, then maybe it won't be.

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.....

I don't think I will...greater shot of band being NW of me.

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

Here we go again.  Same Old Story.  

 

A Storm Starts Out to Sea where NW of me is out of the game, Then I’m forecast to be in the Jackpot, THEN the day of the storm / Nowcasting, The Jackpot moves to NW of me.  
 

It’s happened oh 15,748 times.  

15, 749

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yes please.

Gotta think a deformation area will be near that QPF gradient in these more robust solutions 

Just now, JC-CT said:

best run yet

For everyone, or just western areas? I heard the same thing about the NAM, and it was worse north. 

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah let’s get some radar hallucinations going.  

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected

Could that be a sign this ends up a major blizzard in your opinion?

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I liked 12z better...if this continues, fine...but this provisional solution is not as good for me.

The QPF on the N end is compressed more, but the heavier echoes are tossed more to the south....if the H7 low closes fast enough, this will be be fine bc mid level banding will have higher totals north of QPF, but if the mid levels don't get going fast enough, its a slightly worse solution for northern folks.

I liked 12z better...if this continues, fine...but this provisional solution is not as good for me.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hard to forecast that IMHO (the lil convective blob). That didn’t start showing I’m Ernest until yesterday?

No, Monday, but I didn't buy it at first. I thought I would be ramping up from 6-12"...

The snow map actually cut back a bit in my area, but haven't looked at mid levels.

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah congeal that crap a little sooner and this would be a 12"+ nuke over a swath of SNE.

That is where I thought this was headed with my original 6-12" call on Tuesday, but that convective dual low crap ended up real.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The dual low structure eventually gets gobbled up into one main low on all guidance....but where that happens is key...if it happens sooner, it really prolongs the heavier snowfall in SNE and that would mean we have to up the amounts....if it happens much later, then it keeps snow amounts more adivsory/low end warning (in eastern areas) most likely.

That is what I noted to scooter with respect to the GFS speeding that process up at 12z...NAM slowed it down.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

CMC would be a kick in the nutz at the end of the run.

Looked like it was loading up a N stream goliath after the mid month warm up.

42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

should I subscribe to weathermodels.com or f5 weather? on the fence between the two now

If you value more accurate snow maps, F5 weather...if you just want better overall graphics, then weathermodels.