40/70 Benchmark

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what Kevin wants -

I've found over the years of this social media's engagement ( as has everyone probably - ) that Kevin leads with one sentence pot shot posts that he either knows are wrong, or is of want so badly that he is molding analysis to conform to those desires.  He then sits back and gauge other's responses in some fleeting hope that he'll get a reply that supports his perception as actually being possible. 

ha

Few crucial edits.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is showing a strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4 to start July. That should induce upwelling and renewed cooling

GFS has been, too.

94 today.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

just think ... exactly 6 mo from right now that'll be 50.7

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Winds turning more NE. Marine taint has commenced. 

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

90.7

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Last 3 EC runs valid 18z Sat at MHT have gone 83>70>65. BDL 89>87>85

We'll see.

What is LWM?

90.0 

4 consecutive days-

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems to be alone ... Overall, it's trying to be less cool.  It's not as cool with the backside frontal environment tomorrow.  Ex, 70s vs 60s.   But also, Saturday the Euro it attempts to roll-back the front as a warm intrusion back to about Rt 2 actually...  Meanwhile the GFS and NAM are suppressed, in cold murky back-packing Labradorian sludge air to S of HFD

RT 2 works for me-

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is very warm this weekend pike south 

Good place for it.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's romantic to think of big heat ending with an exit big bang ... but, she seldom shows up. 

The reason for that is because as is typically the case, the front that demarcates the surface end of the heat wave, parallels the flow - typically still having heat wave CIN layer cap.  This mollifies instability while also doesn't provide triggers.  The result is that it just sort of goes away.  

It's progress in displacing the heat is in lockstep with the speed of the height decay aloft.  As the ridge recedes, the front is repositioning accordingly.  

You can see that happening here.  WSW-ENE oriented front side-winding slowly south, as the ridge is deflating - booorinnng

We just find our selves in a different world tomorrow with severe drizzle to show for the giant change.

 

Perfect

Got up to 89.1, but has settled back to 87.7.

2 hours ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period:

Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modestly +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

87.4

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting a bit nervous about that 4th of July weekend... 

The telecon spread is as of last night's layout undeniably signaling a cold piece of shitness look.  Below is the spatial/physically depicted synoptic version of those numerics.  

It really is fuckin' remarkable how you can set your watch to this occurring during these warm seasons holidays.  And there's only 3 of them so it's a clever achievement of probability that 3 in 90 days are so well correlated to cold piece of shitness

The seasonal oscillation....you can set your watch by warm piece of shitness during the cold season holidays.

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

I don't really care what the ONI does, I'm considering modest la Nina analogs.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I snuck a 69 in there. I don’t recall my low point  ever being so bad as to have relations with Kev.

You could have at least gave torch tiger or someone a drunk dial first

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was like 79.4 for about five minutes. I’m actually pissed It didn’t stick to 80.

Thankful for my fake relief.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I snuck a 79 in there. I don’t recall my low temp  ever being that high at least since I’ve been here.

72.1 for the low...back up to 81.9

Well, off to bed....71 to 100 and back down to 81.0.

BOS still 92 with a HI of 99

80s on ACK...not bad for June-

93/HI 101 in Boston still....yikes.

82.8 here.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s southern hemisphere late winter or spring Ray. So our late summer or fall. BOM is Australia. They are in winter now

Oh, boy...that explains it. I'm a moron.

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

High of 96 today after 91 yesterday.....look like will make 4  consecutive of 90+ through Wednesday.

My p&c for tomorrow has a high of 103 with a HI of 111...worst I could find....not the jack I yearn for

I figured that p&c was a bit much. Topped out at 100 here.