This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

There was speculation last fall that the volcano that ejected all that water vapor would cause a strong PV for the winter. That wasn't the case and it was below normal almost the entire winter. We'll need that again and hope for some weakening of the PDO to have a better winter. Worldwide ocean temps are going to be much cooler than last year which should help fwiw.

That is one aspect that I nailed...I confidently called BS on that. However, we are beginning to reach the point in the solar cycle that is very favorable for potent PVs. We can maybe squeeze one more season before its up uphill battle for a few years in that respect.

I would be pretty suprised if next season isn't somewhat better than last season, but that isn't saying much. The cooler oceans should help a bit.

On 5/1/2024 at 10:48 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've been saying that for quite some time. 

Operative word being "almost"...I don't think they are entirely useless, but its clear now that you can't just rip and read these analogs from 20+ years ago.

Agree.

On 4/4/2024 at 11:41 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

CSU forecasting ACE of 210 in their first forecast @40/70 Benchmark

 

Individual storms in the Atlantic

Boston Snowfall:

1933: 62.7"

2005: 39.9"

1893: 64.0"

1926: 60.3"

1995: 107.6"

2004: 86.6"

2017: 59.9"

1950: 29.7"

1961" 44.7"

1998: 36.4"

59.2" Mean Seasonal Snowfall.

On 4/23/2024 at 9:19 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark
The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction.

Cool...yea, you do a good job with that.

I am going to delve into the post season analysis probably next week...I think my snowfall forecast was decent outside of SNE.

+3.25"

34.25" should do it for the season.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/long-duration-nor-easter-very-well.html

Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area.

 

A-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/long-duration-nor-easter-very-well.html

Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area.

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Terrible QPF forecast.  Euro wasn’t even close here.  GFS won, IMO.

Reggie and Canadian were way too far south (not getting big snows up here)… NAM wasn’t great.

GFS had it the whole way.

Is there one of these for SNE? I haven't seen BOX post a map....

17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This photo is classic Stowe. Three-car garage and snow.

Not what you think of for April.

Looks like a painting.

24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Felt it in me rear. Little bum-shaker was a nice primer

Spring festivities for the Big Dipper.

3.25" Final

3.0"

Just what I had expected.

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Gah

There ya go, @CoastalWx...you were waiting for it.

Wife is saying 3-5" at home now, but I will have to verify later this PM...was only 1.75" at 6am. I doubt we tacked on that much.

On 4/1/2024 at 6:24 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever: 

Jesus, we may never catch a break again.

Wow.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They’re clowns for a reason. If you’re mixing sn/pl the whole time with 33-34 temps kuchie and 10:1 are never happening. Especially in April with warm soil temps and coming off a high well into the 40s

Right.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep. The best is wait like 4 hrs before go and check soundings along with qpf  predictions.  UVVs into the 500 layer help lol too. It's all about the column Wilbur

I agree there...better than any model snowfall algorithm.

Just now, dendrite said:

Maybe the best there, but overall garbage. They’re always going to be closest on the sloppy edges. 

Right....but not as rancid as the garbage that the clown maps were down here.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

It ain't over up there 

High-end amounts will be like 18"...aside from like Mt Washington or something.

I agree that if you have a classic situation like Jan 2022, or Jan 2015 etc, they would be awful.

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

No, I mean in the aggregate. The most accurate forecast would have been PDC throughout NE....10:1 and Kutchera were worse in CNE than PDC was in NNE. I'm not sure how you argue that. Is that the case every storm? No, but it was today.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You might want to wait on finals 

I don't need to wait....no one is getting 30" or close to it.

No snow tools are perfect....we need to actually forecast, but +SDC was the best guidance overall.