40/70 Benchmark

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well given how wild the output was yesterday...not sure I trust the output. On the other hand, +DC could be too lean if it's pounding.

Sometimes it gets corrupted, but that output from the NAM is legit.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM dries out the DGZ quickly after 12z. I think you really need to slam before that time for siggy amounts south of MHT. Unless this keeps going south.

I wonder why the disconnect between the NARCAN and + depth change..usually pretty close.

NAM NARCAN gives me a foot....

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM NARCAN

Matches 00z GEM NARCAN exactly.

NAM NARCAN

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nammy colder and colder. Icon rips

Every time I go big in a marginal situation, I get burned...sick of crawling to verification with tail between legs.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

NAM lays a 1.5 cold layer of sleet fir Lawrence then 14 plus snow. 

I think with a several hundred feet of elevation you would get that at that latitude, but not in the MRV.

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good baseline. Now from this reference point add 1-2F to surface temps throughout. 

That's why I'm in much better agreement with NWS maps vs this output.

I agree with you....just happy its gotten a bit more compelling.

Need to watch that low level drain from Maine, though...those mean bussiness.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What in the Sam hell are you doing up at 3:00 AM? Why not just go to bed?

Because I enjoy having a couple of hours to myself with no kids or wife...only time I can get that....and I have always been a night owl...its peaceful.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I have been one of the few here not investing in this. I mean you pulled all nighters in Napril for a few inches of sleet / slop. I never expected anything here . All the posts are there 

I never pulled an all-nighter...I am always up until 2-3am on weekends. Last night I was out before the GFS.

I'm suprised some of these clown maps aren't sporting a SWFE type gradient.....ie SW-NE slant...whereas NE MA gets more snow than NW MASS bc of the mid levels....if the low levels cool a bit more, then we may see that.

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fact Ray is not talking about fantasy baseball means he is on edge and for good reason.  Nam smoke show

Waiver wire just dangling in the wind...waivering like an unmanned firehose.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z ICON is being run from Ray's computer. NE MA/SE NH  jackpot.

Shit.

Now I've done it-

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yep.  That was determined on Sunday

Its a Jedi-mind track...he is inconspicuously asking if anyone thinks he still has a shot without asking.  He is hoping to real in a big kahuna like Scooter or Will.....not a sunfish like Steve, who is always smiling.

Man...NAM Kutchie is 17.8" here.

But...not.....doing it.

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse.

NAM now looks like everything else.

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  If you can slap my face with big DD’s, then Allison waves buh-bye and I move to northeast mass with Ray.

Sorry, no space....get a grip

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's fine away from the city

You know, we have physics in the burbs....

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc. 

Exactly...."complicated" and "bizzarre" imply ambiguity and that doesn't bode well at a time of year when you need everything just about perfect. I think this is why you can't find a single pro, including the NWS, forecsting much of any accumulation anywhere in SNE/CNE.

Last March is fresh in my mind.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is such a bizarre system lol. 

Bizzarre is not the way to get it done in April.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is a peltfest. Tries to flip to snow, but gets a little slotty and sleety south of CON.

Looks exactly like my First Call.

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Have to appreciate the NWS forecast for ASH: 

Low: 0

Expected < 1

High: 11

Pretty good proxy for my area.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Because it's not the final solution. Certainly it doesn't bode well for borderline areas but subtle changes (in either direction) could be huge. 

Yea, to me relying on convection for a positive break when the model that supposedly has the best handle on it has the shittiest solution doesn't inspire much hope.