40/70 Benchmark

I'm suprised some of these clown maps aren't sporting a SWFE type gradient.....ie SW-NE slant...whereas NE MA gets more snow than NW MASS bc of the mid levels....if the low levels cool a bit more, then we may see that.

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fact Ray is not talking about fantasy baseball means he is on edge and for good reason.  Nam smoke show

Waiver wire just dangling in the wind...waivering like an unmanned firehose.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z ICON is being run from Ray's computer. NE MA/SE NH  jackpot.

Shit.

Now I've done it-

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yep.  That was determined on Sunday

Its a Jedi-mind track...he is inconspicuously asking if anyone thinks he still has a shot without asking.  He is hoping to real in a big kahuna like Scooter or Will.....not a sunfish like Steve, who is always smiling.

Man...NAM Kutchie is 17.8" here.

But...not.....doing it.

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse.

NAM now looks like everything else.

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  If you can slap my face with big DD’s, then Allison waves buh-bye and I move to northeast mass with Ray.

Sorry, no space....get a grip

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's fine away from the city

You know, we have physics in the burbs....

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc. 

Exactly...."complicated" and "bizzarre" imply ambiguity and that doesn't bode well at a time of year when you need everything just about perfect. I think this is why you can't find a single pro, including the NWS, forecsting much of any accumulation anywhere in SNE/CNE.

Last March is fresh in my mind.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is such a bizarre system lol. 

Bizzarre is not the way to get it done in April.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is a peltfest. Tries to flip to snow, but gets a little slotty and sleety south of CON.

Looks exactly like my First Call.

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Have to appreciate the NWS forecast for ASH: 

Low: 0

Expected < 1

High: 11

Pretty good proxy for my area.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Because it's not the final solution. Certainly it doesn't bode well for borderline areas but subtle changes (in either direction) could be huge. 

Yea, to me relying on convection for a positive break when the model that supposedly has the best handle on it has the shittiest solution doesn't inspire much hope.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he is just excited about the convection in the midwest and knows that no one in this thread would care (the severe thread is undoubtedly a morgue), so he's obfuscating.

The UCONN fans call into Felger and Mazz and do this....they know that no one here gives a rat's ass, so they try to inconspicuously find a way to link it to one of the major 4 sports teams and Felger roasts them

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

gotcha...should have been more clear. Meant it could be good for those riding the line as it at least keeps them in the game, it doesn't completely end hope (accounting for the possibility of more favorable ticks). 

But if the NAM has the best handle on the convection....and it is furthest north and warmest, why does the keep me in the game???

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

He's hitting the high gravity scuba tanks early today.

I think he is just excited about the convection in the midwest and knows that no one in this thread would care (the severe thread is undoubtedly a morgue), so he's obfuscating.

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently. 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well I guess it depends on perspective/expectations  

Someone somewhere is going to get whacked pretty good, unfortunately it's probably a small amount of people and a very small percent of the forum so I can understand the excitement may not be high. 

But at least from a meteorological perspective, this is going to be a blast to watch unfold. Storms like this though are a phenomenal learning tool. I wish in school there was a class or course (maybe there is in grad school) then was dedicated to studying historical storms. Just watching how everything evolves, interacts, and how all the processes involved lead to the evolution...anyone interested in forecasting could substantially boost their knowledge from these systems. 

You aren't making any sense....you are implying that the NAM has the best handle and it would be good news for those riding the line if it is right, but its the most northern and lame solution for those on the line....then when asked, you admit that it would only be good for the moose.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently. 

Then why does the NAM solution blow?

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wouldn’t that be the southern periphery? If everybody north of you is increasing/getting more…wouldn’t that put you on the southern periphery? Just trying to picture what you mean? 

Northern periphery of BOX overage area...southern periphery of snow shield.

BOX must be riding the NAM.

Man...that 06z EURO is cold. 11.1" here now on the Kuchie and 5" on the +DC.....not sure how long BOX can ignore that-

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

I pull it out when the power goes out

Man, too easy...won't bother

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll toss it anyways.

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They will just toss it anyway

I don't think we will have to worry about board clearing intervals this week.