40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that's probably the best winter I'll ever experience, lol. 

Likewise with regard to last year for me.

The epic cold and snow combo was second to none.

In fact, until Last February, I could say that I hadn't seen anything of that caliber up here for the entirety of my life.

I have now.

From an outsider perspective, I vote to aggregate both of the snowmageddon events into the one voting option.

Xmas '02 was a great storm. We didn't get the jackpot in ORH like further NW did, but we had 13.5" of snow...started around 6-7am and went all day into the night ending in the overnight hours. There was actually a lot of sleet not too far SE...down in NE CT, N RI, and up near metro-southwest Boston.

I turned to sleet and rain after about 5".

When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things:

 

It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable

His maps are always just a EURO snowfall map overlay.

Stall is nowhere near what it was on 12z Euro.

 

Not only is SLP further east, the rapidity of exit is greater:

It's like 30 miles east at 18z Tuesday, then by 0z Wednesday it really starts to move away about 60 miles northeast.

Also, the spoiler low starts off southeast of the low we had on the 12z Euro, but eventually is much further northeast.

 

Upsetting for lots of folks I'm sure.

For eastern MA, hope we do well on a deformation band which now seems to be ours.

Sorry, i'll trade 7 extra hours of 1/2" per hour snow for the deformation band.

This is nirvana.

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1422338739.608384.jpg

Mother of weenies.....holy $hit boing, pitch pants tent#$#$#$#

not that it wouldve verified but euro went from 24 plus to 12 in one run and moved that heavy stuff 100 miles ne, very nam like. this is devastating, it just never gets any easier....still no heavy snow

Sucks, dude.

Hopefully the SB system will inflate you weenie

subsidence setting up between 128 and 495?

At this point you actually have to start talking about 40-50 inches in interior SE Mass..Every single model drops like 3 inches + of qpf down there. Even at 10:1..that's still 36+

 This is 1978...notch down with regard to cf.

Someone down in se MA wil pull 40"

Jackpot from Scooter to Messenger.

It's really actually a SW CT jackpot there near NYC fwiw.

I don't think it will stay that way @ 12z.

Night.

What's nice about that position is it still provides some wiggle room in the leadup for almost the entire subforum.

 

It's still on the western side of the guidance, it looks similar to me to the RGEM?

What's nice about that position is it still provides some wiggle room in the leadup for almost the entire subforum.

 

It's still on the western side of the guidance, it looks similar to me to the RGEM?

I agree.

i was thinking to myself that i would like to see the EURO on the west edge of guidance.

Perfect.

Key with Euro Was the Phase Timing, it was quickest phaser and just had ML lows in areas favorable area and longer time for NYC  , most expect a little bit later phase

Time to change the sig

"Who will be the first to derobe....

Watch the EURO be a CC special

Fixed that for you.   There's a lot of time left, and if history is a guide we will chase the details on the stall point right into the end.

Yea, I am nervous about that....we have a really strong consensus, though.

24.2

thank, man.

About what expected because that is what I got applying the 1/3 rule to the NAM output.

thread to obsess on banding

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45515-crunch-time-the-great-debate/#entry3297482

Bufkit numbers for GFS just came in, now I know why Harvey went 24-30,wow

KBED

I started a subsidence/deform circle-jerk thread.

Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too.

Exactly.

That is how i played it.

I'll whine about it all day long until im covered again. Going through a tough time in my life with dad not doing well, I foking need this. 

I hear, man.

As Scott intimated earlier, I lost mine suddenly in March, while my life was already in shambles.

I still struggle every day, mentally, but gotta take it day to day.

This $hit helps

I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare.

 

As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes.

 

The glaring mistake that I saw right off the bat is that obviously, they didn't know where the banding would set up....so they blanketed. Fine.

But you blanket with a the tamer range, not 24-36"

Say 18"+, and perhaps outline "hot spots" where the possibility for 2' or more is highest.

That is how I played it.

just looking at GGEM... persistent subsidence zone in all the models over metrowest Boston, all the banding features really just sit in same place while system stalls

We can prob get one more tic.

This could be the Blizzard of 2005 all over again...aka, boston mets discounting snows on the Cape, only to scramble at the last minute and jack up accumulations, or just refuse to acknoledge the fact that we got 3 feet of snow (I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard, called for 8-16 with a changeover to rain, ended up with 36).

 

Time and time again there's too much model hugging when it comes to rain/snow lines over the Cape with these historic storms (and I'm not just saying that b/c I live there as I'm in the city now). As the LP bombs out heavy banding makes it very hard for temps to actually climb above freezing and change precip (look at 850mb temps and you'll see exactly what im talking about).

Canadian and NAM have Cape as Jackpot with 28-34. This one will be interesting...

I think I have a shot to beat the 25" I got in that one....maybe even Nemo's 27"

#1 Is April '97...only 30-spot of my life.