40/70 Benchmark

I've been in the 24" spot in every map except Wankum's that I've seen tonight. 

That seals it.

30" for you.

You look solid on all of these runs tonight. I wanna see you pull through with a 30".

I hear you on the consistency, though...i'd rather paste, but I'll take it.

harv just said he wouldn't be shock is this was all time for Boston.

These shifts east may put me out of that. I guess my point is the obsession of these go overboard because it's not like it's the difference of 10" vs 40". The last few years have certainly brought out the banding brigade.

Point taken.

Harvey's in the muthufukkin house!

Wankum on wind watch

Harv used the RGEM/NAM/RPM.

Snows hard until 11pm Tues night, east lol

oh dude I can't tell you how pumped I am. First Nor Easter ever and I'm sure this will more than make up for the crappy 4" of snow I have received all season before this. I am fortunate (or unfortunate) enough to have the next 15 days off due to an injury so I'll be able to sit here and take it all in (of course I'm gonna take a drive to watch hill and try to experience some close to hurricane force gust!?) ... Can't even begin to explain how excited and pumped I am, more than I've ever been for any lake effect event in Buffalo ever. What are your thoughts for this area? I'm hoping for 18"+ but would consider anything over 12" a score for sure. It's the combined effects of this storm that's got me pumped more so than the totals as I know we're not gonna jackpot to me and it really doesn't matter because this is just gonna be an epic storm as a whole. Winds here? Think we'll gust above 60? Well good luck everyone and so sorry to the NYC folks that are probably one east Euro run away from a toaster bath. To everyone that's lucky enough to experience this storm, appreciate it, enjoy it, and stay safe!

Awesome. Enjoy, man

And so is being rain while you're SN++ as often happens to him. Get the point?

Right.

Which is why I never call anyone out for expressing concerns (aside from breaking mpm balls sometimes).

Is that over your head?

Thank God these don't happen often because all you clowns dry humping a 30 mile wide band of snow is nauseating.

Well, subsidence is nauseating.

Easy to say from under an OES bubble.

0z GFS is east as well

AWT

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the quintessential , weak el Nino-Miller B-East KU

I referenced this in my winter outlook.

Go check the thread.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44892-4070-benchmarks-winter-outlook-2014-15/

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the quintessential , weak el Nino-Miller B-East KU

I referenced this in my winter outlook.

Go check the thread.

Lol Ray  BED 34.8 IJD 34.8 ORH 37.1 yea no

Quantitatively, no....qualitatively.....perhaps..

Apply my 1/3 rule, and it's 24.7"

I buy that.

I have Bufkit

KBED, please

And ORH

Anyone have a NAM clownage?

That's good for us, right?

Yes.

you're in the ORH band...I'm on the edge

wouldnt east movement put you in subsidence?

No...it would put me in the ORH band

RGEM is a very viable model

Wagons east.

ASOUT

I am kind of surprised at some of our more astute posters straying from their honed mantra.

Steve, the EURO is the best model, but it often is a little over amped.

The rpm will continue to change every 3 hours. Kind of pointless to put much stock in it outside of 12-24 from what the mets say.

The point is it has the deform in the exact spot that the NAM and RGEM do.

I think that central MA deform has legs.

I don't agree with NAM being onto anything.  It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth.  No folks - 

The REGM and GFS have the same trend. Yes folks-

it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs

Where is that cirrus pic you had last week?

I'm nude.....jimmy swaying int he breeze...

The NAM is flattered you think that of it.

Yes.

I'd rather it not blow its load over sw CT again.

yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way.  for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time?  Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time.  

Although if this run is given any credence, it should be less of a concern everywhere.

NAM amplifies later. Probably going to be a noose worthy run for NYC but still great for SNE.

Excellent.