40/70 Benchmark

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I commented further up that I thought BOS to PYM looked pretty darn good at the furthest NW point of the CCB. They'd prob get the Berkshires/S VT band from last storm (obv doesn't mean the same amounts though) 

Some of that was upslope augmented, no doubt.

Here is you deformation goodies...interior se MA, through Boston, up along the north and shore and into coastal ME is getting crushed on the Euro.

20 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Actually almost dead on SLP of 12z GFS at 72 hrs, pretty good consensus for moderate impact to eastern SNE... and ensembles signal an even closer track

I'm ok being on the western edge considering what Mitch just experienced.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter said it won’t stall until well to our NE

As depicted on prior model data...sure.

And maybe that will be the case...it doesn't have to work out optimally for sne.

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Is any model showing a stall yet?

I don't think so...I was just speculating on an NAO block working in tandem with a PNA ridge.

I figured the stall was BS on the other systems because we had a trough out west.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I realized I was in the wrong thread. Looks like BOS down to PYM may get in on the CCB ML goodies. Def the cape for sure. 

I'd watch for this to really slow down, too.

I think its better through hr 60.

N Stream and s stream look a but stronger to me.

S stream and N stream a little stronger on the EURO.

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

You dont know what's at stake... 

Your irrelevance is +5SD

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

What is your problem? 

I like baseball?

56 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 

With the winter off the rails here and the big coastal expected to be a non event in this neck of the woods it is time to look ahead to next year. Post your thoughts here on what it might look like.

 

PS this thread changed our fortunes last year .

 

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

I may start veering in this direction myself soon....that and fantasy baseball. 

My first instinct is that next year may be ENSO neutral and less than stellar.

On 12/24/2014 at 10:23 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, I'll wait til presidents day to cancel winter.

Good choice that season, huh?

10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Winter Storm Juno photos and videos from Mike Siedel from the Weather Channel is amazing to continue to watch over and over again.  Juno was the second most amazing snowstorm to strike Harwich, MA, 32" of snow, second behind the Great North American Blizzard of 2005, 35"

Once someone becomes a legend, are they always a legend?

20 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog.

Still looks east-based to me, and is going to remain weak and east-based....the thing is going to be gone by January or February..

When are you going to call it, June?

On 10/20/2017 at 9:06 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

I never really expected it to be cool. NAO while negative will probably be mostly transitory, which means less snow. It would have been really nice to have a different Pacific right now, -EPO or GOA ridge all month, then with -QBO loading pattern, something cold and snowy is 5x more likely. As it is now, the tendency for Atlantic blocking will often be in battle with forces to shear it out. 

Chuck, are you implying a positive EPO is more likely throughout winter becuase it has been predominate during October?

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Dover area was actually pretty close to ground zero in the big Mar 2001 storm...they had close to 40 inches. I also remember being "disappointed" in ORH with "only" about 24" in that storm. I was thinking 30" minimum.

Yea...interior se NH jackpot...I felt screwed with 20" just to the south ol

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 5, 2001 was def the most painful event for the coast that winter...I think it's a lot worse than Dec 30, 2000 since even over the interior in 12/30/00, we got dryslotted and it was not a monster. But Feb 5 was 18-30 inches over the interior. Coast got porked. Though for some, the sting of getting basically zero in Dec 2000 might be worse. Feb 5 at least did give 5-8" around BOS at the end.

I had 9"-10", then a slot in 2-5-01

I started as some rain and sleet, but quickly flipped and got near 20".

Chuck, question...if you get the time, could you run your formula for the '70-71' season in order to see how it verifies?

One reservation I have is that as well as your formula has performed, it missed on '07-'08, which is a fair analog for this season.

Yea, I have interpreted this tropical October regime as a positive development in relation to winter prospects....statistically speaking, trends from October to November tend to augur the prevailing winter pattern more often than not-

On September 17, 2017 at 7:22 PM, griteater said:

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

I had +.37, so neutral-positive.

I wouldn't consider that a win for this index, but he knows better than I.

18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

El Nino/-QBO 60% correlated to -NAO

La Nina/+QBO 60% correlated to +NAO

I think the correlation to the AO is stronger, but obviously this is an NAO thread...

-QBO to hopefully provide some polar assist..

Good ole "Jack O"...RIP