40/70 Benchmark

All I care to see is the Euro stop shifting east. NAM nudging east, but still showing a big hit doesn nothing to allay my fears.

Just now, weathafella said:

So cool the tug north.  You can see my shriveled member “stand up”

Meteorological viagra?

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think so. I think what happens is when they deepen so quickly (similar to tropical systems) perhaps the big pressure gradients leads to precip becoming more band-like b/c you'll getting rapidly rising columns of air and so with that you must get rapidly sinking columns of air

Interesting take.

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

so when a storm strengthens slower you get a more widespread shield like pd2, 1/96, 2/01?  these bandy noreasters have always been annoying

Pd II and Jan 96 had tremendous isentropic lift...huge hi. That is one way to get that expansive QPF Sheild that isn't be ba banded.

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Would that require the ever-elusive stall?

Not necessarily...no.

Provided it doesn't slip east...there will be some isolated 6"/hr type stuff. 

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

naked 

This system is not decaying....the deformation band will be hellacious.

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yea, Screw some occluded POS.

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there publicly.

See what 00z does.

Just now, dryslot said:

I've seen 962mb

Not blowing load early unlike other Jan blizzard.

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of reminds me of sam's maps..................

 

Matches Euro death band well.

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d wait until the 00z runs before backpedaling. The euro wasn’t great, but don’t change everything over a few 18z runs. Maybe everything ticks back west at 00z with new raob data.

Agree. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But I need to see how the forcing looks through 500. It looked like deeper lift was east.

700RH was centered on KPYM.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

-12C at 700 is BOS to Ginxy at 12z Tuesday and then slides east. 

Unless this slides east, I find it hard to envision Steve getting into and me missing it.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What you want to do is diagnose H7-H5 features and corresponding temps. Recall DGZ is -12 to -18C. Wherever that temp profiles lies need to have lift and RH. Sometimes it’s as low as 700mb, sometimes it’s above 600mb. 

Were is that on the EURO? My guess is Plymouth...

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Imo that band is vicinity of ORH

On that EURO run, its east of there.

Reality....probably either Worcester of CJ land.

Diane, you are ground zero on that Euro run.

The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

Just now, #NoPoles said:

Well, ****, my Friend in Upton asked me what the euro showed. I told her 5 inches. 

Take the QPF chart...eat a burrito, then wipe with it.

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There might be a mega band right on the coast Gloucester Boston Plymouth 

There is on the 12z EURO.

See my last post.

We're on the same page.

Here is my interpretation of the 12z EURO.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

That's where I have stayed 

Looks good right now.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Are you doing an update tonight?  Plan those bathroom trips well and type fast

Final call tomorrow night.

Right now, I think I'd shift everything like 15 mi east, but this is why you do two calls, and not update after every run.....recipe for waffles.

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... his area has been on the line between major or less impact so the changes are more severe there.

Hoping we can get a small jog back west

The 00z EURO was perfect for me, 12z jackpots more your area over to Diane.

Either is fine for me, though.....it didn't shift much at all. The QPF output is misleading.

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

massive lol ok.. they are not massive.. maybe for your area

Regardless of QPF, it still looks like we have a good shot at over 1'.

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

my first call for mby is 10-16". will refine later

Yea, that's reasonable.

2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

You had 8-14" for eastern areas last night?

I edited that.