40/70 Benchmark

4 minutes ago, OKpowdah said:

The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.

I think the screw zone will be outside of I 495.

Montauk pt and BID must be doing like 2"/hr now.

I actually like Kuchera here.

I would honestly expect this.

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

An inch of snow or an inch of precip?  Yikes

Snow...it was negligible....

Just now, ice1972 said:

What does that mean "more compressed out west"?  Like higher QPF but with the same distribution east to west?  No expansion of the field west just bump them up a bit?  IDK

It trimmed like an inch out by you.

Its a bit more compressed out west....

Slightly beefed up east....same or a tick more compressed west.

Looks a hair less progressive....so far.

Sam, what do you think?

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

HRDPS supports that, the band just sits and pivots over us into southeast MA for hours

Looks like it gets out to 495.

I wonder if the north shore can get some cj action this time...interesting returns flying in from the ne off of the ocean...in advance of the main precip shield.

7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

Yea, I'm seeing the same thing.

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Uncle?

Slightly east.

I'll crash after euro.

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Maybe... but I don't think it's simply extrapolation of current radar... the entire system retrogrades northwest with northern stream pull later Tuesday morning, and that is gonna be critical for the bigger totals.

That critical aspect can't be extrapolated from radar, and that's what I'm trying to see if we can nowcast.

Gonna be a thrill of a morning. You staying up all night? I'm thinking of recharging for a few hours.

Yea, I didn't mean to imply extrapolation tells the whole story....but it at least gives you an idea of the haves and have nots in a worst case.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who cares, enough of this cranky....he’s a nobody who all of the sudden is getting noticed. 

We all bust...but just own it.

People respect that.

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Honestly hard to find something to grab onto to help us nowcast this in the next few hours

Such a complex interaction aloft, and at the surface the exact location of the low does not seem to correlate with impact... at least within the next 6 hours

For example by 12z Tuesday morning, the GFS is actually more northwest than the NAM...

Which makes another point: GFS qpf distribution is complete garbage. I'm confident in leaning towards NAM/RGEM/HRRR/RAP at this point over GFS. Also easy to get lost because it's infrequent, but Euro steadily ticked up for 3 runs in a row.

 

 

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, the camp of the EURO and NAM will beat out everyone else with the support of the mesoscale models

I agree...EURO may very well tic east, but that shouldn't really matter for us.

Just now, Amped said:

HRDPS looks halfway between the GFS and the NAM, so does the CMC and the HRRR.  Probably best to toss the NAM and GFS.

Except the EURO supports the NAM more than the GFS....as does all of the mesoscale guidance.

35.3/31

Drizzle...glad this is starting at night.

Just now, CT Rain said:

The HREF chucked big time too. Some really epic totals even back to C CT.

You tossing GFS, too?

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Time to put down the operationals and go over to mesos and nowcasting. It looks great.

Agree here.

I think we have all been there when we nowcasted a system going into the $hitter despite a model disparity (see first March nor easter)...this is the opposite.

Just now, Amped said:

GFS has the 700mb front 50-75 miles east of the NAM at 18hrs.   Looks like NAM just pulls the midlevel warmth further west.  I'm usually for playing it safe and splitting the difference.

I'm usually for playing it safe and tossing the GFS.