40/70 Benchmark

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I actually really like this cold 500mb over Greenland for Winter -EPO potential.. it's a correlation that I've been working with over the past 12 years, strong +NAO periods are correlating with -EPO +time

-EPO is my early hedge for next winter, as well...I was just telling a forecaster on FB that I associate with that I feel good about ridging INVO AK next season.

Its a general warming....I'm sure the warming varies from staton to station, but everywhere is inarguably warming.

Looks like Kev has been stricken with another round of emoji-dementia.

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well that was not phrased properly  

Takes all the fun out of it when there is nothing to alter in the quote...I felt dirty.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This isn't the same Chuck that we had in 2006-07 *warmest winter ever* LOL

If he sees that he will be...thing about Chuck is that he's lethally dispassionate.

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I foresee me working Ray's weenie OT over the next two days  Finally some exciting severe to post about

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "not based upon all present indicators  ... "

 

There is strong telconnector and multi-ensemble convergence on a heavy round of psychosis.

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the MAN next door is playing hard to get and wants some areola coverage tomorrow

Maybe a bit of chocoloate sauce dripped on the nape?

Kind of a contnuation of that buregeoning theme from last cold season of a colder se Canada...lets keep that going into next winter.

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week.

Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend.  The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE..

The problem is up over eastern Canada.  From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there.   The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position.  The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point.  The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance.

So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul.  We've spoken about the confidence risks already.  Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range.  I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there.   We'll have to see.

 

Mid range attenuation not of just winter threats, but of anything remotely interesting, though this one I'll take.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh I would too . But at some point something has to give . The five finger boredom death punch the last 5 years is enough to make you gouge eyes out with a grapefruit spoon 

Jan 7 2024 was incredible...Feb 1 2021 was okay, too....but that's about it for me.

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just for once , please bring the goods, the damage , the excitement, the destruction. Just once, it’s not too much to ask 

I'd rather take my chances with a cane.

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the eastern US heat ridge showed up on models a few days ago, Heating Oil has really gone up in price

Conflict in the Middle East also has something to do with it too, but today it outperformed Crude Oil. I have a mathematical indicator to trade Futures, and I have a really strong Up signal on Heating Oil for tomorrow.. if you want to take a chance and possibly make some $...  It's telling me that the weather isn't fully baked in yet. I have a 58% chance that it will go up tomorrow. 

For a second I thought you were leading into optimism about next winter...then realized you were just trying to make a buck Back to the regularly scheduled warm pool lectures from Bluewave....

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Steintastic!

Agree!!

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Hang in there. I'm sure we'll eventually get the background state that we got in late 2013 until the super el nino ended in early/mid-2016. The -PDO streak can't last the entire decade, right?

I think it could...

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How many will perish ?

Hopefully just your laptop

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But we have a sports forum

P Cloudy

65.8

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

In the end, they do not move him if he was a good teammate.

I think it hastened it, but they also wanted out of that contract, too.  I get it...I don't think he'll age particularly gracefully over 30.....

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe. 

But .255 babip, .857 ops, in 250ish ABs isn’t enough proof for me that he will be a failure…even if it’s A ball. 

Nothing is proof of anything in A ball....which harkens back to the fact I would want a higher percentage yield trading a player of Dever's caliber. Not to mention they have sold us on "waiting until the youth is ready" to compete for several years, now once it arrives, they cut the teams legs out from underneath it.

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... it's a billion dollar operation that is a baseball organization - it has something to do with baseball.  

I get it that it's not based on what I just said, but I also didn't say that - I said it helped.   I bet if Devers didn't spend the first month of the season suckin donkey D on offense with historically bad numbers  ... but say, he hit .380 in the span instead, it would have factored some. 

I disagree. Confident it has nothing to do with it, but we can agree to disagree. The Giants didn't opt to eat 250 million on a whim overnight, so the outcome of the series wasn't a factor- 

It wasn't a baseball decision.....the Sox decision to move him had nothing to do with wins and losses.

This move had absoluely zero point zero to do with baseball...non-factor. It was about finances and (frayed) relationships.

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i also wonder if the fact that they swept the Yanks, and took 2/3 in the last two previous series, while Devers was slumping and not really helping them on offense, just might of maybe helped the final inking be a little more legible  ...

I don't think so. You don't move that much money overnight....this was in the works for a bit-

55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably silently speaks volumes about how much they appreciated his antics back in spring training when he attempted to dictate to the organization where/what/how he plays ... just a guess.  

 

Absolutely...he's a shit-bag. I wanted him gone, but not for a bag of balls. What frustrated me is they valued saving more money over getting any talent back in return. The issue isn't Devers, but rather the continued deemphasis of the collection of premium talent.

Complete crap.

9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The got a 2024 first round pick back in Tibbs

1) He's hitting 245 in low A ball

2) He's in low A ball and a few if not severla years away

3) Just what they needed...another OF.

Yay:

Prospects TLDR: Tibbs currently has the look of a good platoon outfielder. His projection could shift into more of an everyday role if his defense improves and/or he shows he can hit upper-level lefties.