18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

Look at that gradient from the N shore to my house...that would be nice payback for 12 5 2003 lol

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/final-call-for-messy-mid-week-storm.html

No change from First Call.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX map updated.  Some parts of my area 6-8”

 

They must have seen my map lol

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/final-call-for-messy-mid-week-storm.html

No change from First Call.

Final Call for Messy Mid-Week Storm

Primarily Rain & Sleet for the Region 

Synoptic Evolution:

 

But since the energy is going to coalesce beneath the strong -NAO block to the north and be forced to the ENE it will exit the coast in the general vicinity of southern New England. However, given that the system will become so powerful over the midwest, it will still advect warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere to the north and into the region as the system makes its approach.

 

 

 

 

 And while it will eventually transfer energy to the coast, the system begins to lose strength beforehand. 

 

 

This will make it extremely difficult to maintain heavy enough precipitation for a long enough period of time to overcome what will be a marginally cold enough atmospheric column for snowfall across the region. This is apparent in the sounding for Lawrence, MA, which depicts the several hour window past midnight during which light to moderate snowfall accumulations may occur.

 

 

This is also reflected by the fleeting period of maximum forcing, which traverses the area quickly prior to mid level dry air advecting in.

 

 

 

Thus problematic time period will be after midnight and predawn early Thursday, which may negatively impact the morning commute, especially points north of route 2.

Anticipated Storm Evolution:

Light Rain will begin to break out Wednesday afternoon and evening.

 

 

  The lower levels of the atmosphere will become colder due to evaporational cooling working in conjunction with the loss of solar heating. However, warm air aloft will mean sleet as opposed to snowfall across northern areas initially during the evening. 

 

 

But the developing coastal storm should draw down enough cold air for the precipitation to transition to snowfall across northern areas as the heaviest burst moves in after midnight, especially given the absence of solar heating given that this will occur nocturnally.

 

 

 

The precipitation should become more banded prior during the morning as the heaviest lift progresses north of the forecast area and drier mid level air is drawn in by the developing coastal low.

 

 

Much of the precipitation that falls during the day on Thursday will be banded and of varying intensity, which coupled with the incoming April solar irradiance will greatly limit any additional snow and sleet accumulations inland.

 

 

 

In summary, the storm system is expected to grow very powerful so far to the west that it will advect in some warmer mid level air that will cause precipitation to begin as sleet and rain. There will then be competing forces, as dynamics will begin to be wane as the primary weakens only to be reinvigorated by the development of a secondary coastal system during the day on Thursday. However, given that the system will be impacting the forecast area during this time of transition, the dynamics necessary to overcome initial mid level warmth and April level of incoming solar irradiance during the day will be insufficient for an extended period of snowfall. Instead, expect light to perhaps moderate accumulations of snowfall during the predawn hours of Thursday AM, before drier mid level air causes precipitation to become more banded in nature by dawn on Thursday, which will struggle to accumulate during the daytime this late in the season.

 

Final Call:

 

 

First Call ( Issued Monday April 1 @ 1030AM):

 

 

 

General Threat Assessment (Issued Saturday March 30 @ 6PM):

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeah first and foremost I'm trying to be objective..heh.  I'm not sure I was being pessimistic just noting stuff. 

In the same vein, the models are trying to give some mechanic back here in the short range. 

The deep layer trough closes off too soon ( still ) for liking.  It reaches a rather potent depth for April 3 climo all the way down to 520 dm centered ~ SW lower Michigan.   It then fills over the next 12 hours back up to 532 dm or so, centered over N PA... But then a new center carves down to 526 dm openning up over Albany, after which it moves E across SNE as a height fall region in the midst of the ongoing CCB hosing SE NH.

That interval is coincident with the overnight stuff 03 to 12z Wed nigh into dawn on Thur.  It may have been more or less hinted prior runs, but its more obvious now.  These "edgy" spring systems are sensy to nuances like that and can make or break the sensible profile of storms. 

 

 

Poor choice of words perhaps...maybe measured or conservative would have been better, as I didn't intend to imply that there was any type of conscious effort or that the sentiment was emotionally driven.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z euro looks a bit warmer than 06z. Took a step back. Gonna have to sweat it out apparently in the N MA/S NH zone. 

Its even a hair worse than 00z.

EURO looks warmer than 06z.

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down.

You still not feeling this one? You seemed pessimistic due to the decaying dynamics on approach....

I can't wait to see what actually happens.

Just now, DomNH said:

It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface.

Yea, its really a mid level warmth issue and I usually do well with those...its the low levels that normally get me.

LOL 3km NAM has me with a Kuchera of 15" and a 1.5" PDC.

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Verbatim it's a textbook snow sounding from like 03z to 09z then it starts to rapidly dry out up top. Can't rule out 1''+/hr poundage during that window though. Razor thin.

Could be more....I did 2"/hr for severla hours during that time frame back in January. That coming in predawn helps, too.

Yea, GEM cut back quite a bit...

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So I only waste .30" of QPF as IP at the onset...according to the GFS.

This is total QPF by dawn...lets assume no accumulation during the day given inconsistent rates and solar irradiance...around a foot of cement minus the .3 wasted. Maybe even assume less than 10:1...say 10" or so.

This is me "doing it" BTW, in case anyone hasn't realized.

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

04z now.

So I only waste .30" of QPF as IP at the onset...according to the GFS.

05z is midnight, correct?

39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looking at LWM, they drop blow 0C at 950 mb like Wednesday afternoon and stay there for the duration. Now the models all have it mixing thanks to some 700 mb warm air initially, but by midnight-ish Wednesday night the whole column is cold enough for snow.

Maybe several inches here about 5mi or so N of KLWM.

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Coastal areas are going to get rocked by wind and even into the interior. Low-level lapse rates are quite steep. I wonder if coastal Maine/New Hampshire could gusts 70-80 mph.

You should run naked and free up and down Hampton Beach

GFS for MBY

19" 10:1

15" on Kutchera

3.5" PDC

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Dries out the DGZ really quickly Thursday morning like the NAM, but that's a pounding from like 03z to 12z. 

The timing of this actually reminds me of Jan 7th....it was insane, like 2"/hr from midnight through like 7AM.

Glad the heavy band comes through at night.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z GFS looks similar to 6z. SE NH crusher into adjacent Maine. Ray slapped too. 

Its a hair south of/colder than 06z.

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can you afford Ray consuming a 6500 calorie meal?

 I can throw down food on my cheat meals.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Huh? Text you read Sun.

I already did this is more about Kev Hunch Ray. I still am thinking you do 4 to 6 Hunchie foot Ray 6

I think that is a hair high, but not unreasonable.