40/70 Benchmark

Exactly. I also hope people realize that I don't try to use "chaos" as an excuse with respect to long range snowfall calls...I get that its the nature of the beast and it is what it is. That is something that I will mention in the hindsight analysis, as it may make the grading more of C than an F if I got the general pattern right. This is why even though I was pretty accurate with the snowfall totals in that 2014-2015 epic run, the forecast wasn't an "A" in my mind because I missed the polar domain....I was right for the wrong reasons. It goes both ways and I mentioned that. I was "lucky" to have pretty much nailed the snowfall totals.

I think LR patterns are somewhat predictable, but I agree with alot of what you are saying. I can also live with your description of luck simply being the elements of variance not within our control...AKA chaos. I just say luck because it's a simpler description.

With respect to snowfall, not the pattern. There is a great deal of luck involved with snowfall, I'm suprised that you can't wrap your mind around that. Kevin, I'm not lol

Yes. Deal with it-

Patterns can be predicted.

Who cares.

I'm sorry, if you are a snow lover living in SNE and turned down a chance to repeat the 2009-2010 pattern for a season, then you are an idiot and should not reproduce. Period. Perfect example of bad luck in a good pattern. This year is an example of bad luck in an already relatively poor pattern. Not awful...however, the sensible result in terms of snowfall has been awful. This was not a Dec 2011 type of deplorable pattern. Unfortunately, it hasn't made much of a difference in terms of snowfall. Yes, it's still been warm, but normally a period of blocking like this will produce. We never had a chance in more hostile months.

Luck is involved in science...its called chaos and is the reason for variance. If there were no luck involved in science, then there would be no variance and similar variable would always lead to a similar outcome. But that isn't the case. This is why it's best to view patterns in a probabilisric sense, as opposed to anticipated outcomes.

I have been saying how great he has been, but I have to agree he is kicking the can a bit here.

Even if the RNA is 1-2SD....its better than the record 3SD that we have had. The hope for the first half of January is that we can cash in on the period when the NAO is relinquishing its grip en route to the thaw.

So isn't death, as least we know that will ultimately verify.

Now Cosgrove is saying late January/early February for any real winter weather in the northeast.

Completely agree.....although, I did correctly predict the Sox for a low 90s win total and Wild Card contention. I also knew they had a shot at beating TB because they were too reliant on young, unproven SP.

Edge of my seat....

Its been going into phase 8 since the equinox.

Well, at the very least, I will take 50 and rain over 32.50454453482429422 and rain for a change.

I didn't realize that one was unexpected. Wasn't paying enough attention in the crib, I guess. Did it back in?

They are hilarious.....kill me, but he won't reveal his secret

This is what I was getting at...that is the absolute worst nightmare of a season....it wasn't even warm. It was actually cold, and on paper, you would have been happy with that season....but it just invented ways to not snow around here. Imagine having a season so cold that LI sound freezes over, adorned in snowfall futility records.... Give me 2011-2012 over that. lol

This we can agree on.

We need one TBH....breakup the chain of precip type-migraine laden, still born SWs that are born from this cosmic butt-plug of desconstructive wave interference.

Where do you get your memes? They are so hilarious...I need to know lol

Part of it is that the NBA is so cliquey.....and the super stars only conglomerate to form their circle jerk teams in certain cities. Good luck in that landscape if you aren't a destination.

Right....common during a rebuild....which began after the 4th title in 14 years.

I think your take is tone deaf. The Red Sox have won 4 titles in the past 17 years, and are ahead of schedule in a rebuild coming off an off season in which no one gave them a chance in hell. I would have said the same thing he did. Claiming that they were closer to missing the PS than winning a WS is dumb because they did make the post season. Celtics are a different story...they have a young core that has evolved into perennial underachievers and don't have much room for upward mobility as a team. The Red Sox can get any star they want if they pay up, the Cs can not.