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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a piece to the puzzle...but there are other forcing mechanisms. Maybe all else being equal, hedge towards MJO comps.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    So the grinch is in tornado alley...fine by me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad we couldn't drop omega, forky and torch tiger on a remote island with no internet....they could just fantasize amongst themselves staring at the sun all day long...maybe add snowman21 to the mix.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sucks that you moved to St Louis
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Identical to 00z, just a bit more QPF.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its actually better for me.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wish I had double-weighted 1970 ...the only reason I didn't is because it wasn't a second year la nina. December Analogs: 2007, 2000 (x2), 1974, 1970, 1995, 2005 (x2), 2017 (x2), 2008, 1983, 2020
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny, I right before Will posted that, I referenced Feb 1969 as an example of a RNA/NAO pattern that was better for NE than mid atl.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was a great post....ever since you made that, I have noticed how modeling is aligning better for the maratimes and New Foundland.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like Will said....you have to look at it in terms of probability because even the less suppressive regimes can still screw the pooch with gradient saturation. Each situation is unique, and we refer to past analogs to formulate somewhat of a conceptionalization to guide expectations.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That last one looks like it would be more suppressive to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think some of that may be due to el nino seasons, which are more apt to produce down there when blocking is present because there is a more prominent STJ. La nina can be tougher even with blocking down there because its more n stream prevalent, which obvious better for NE.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's actually a good point...thinking back over some of the seasons, a lot of the early season RNA/-NAO patterns were kind of hostile south of NE.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Having one of the two favors NE..I didn't say NYC can't snow. Plus its more detrimental south of you.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    How was DEC 1970 for you? Feb 1969? Not very good......you need PNA and NAO...one or the other is better for NE.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least the GEFS trended colder for xmas eve.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyway, I have a feeling the GEFS mean will be less overbearing.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bite me
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty close to punting 12/23...looked worse.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Make up my mind on which direction I'm going to be bent over by a grizzly man in a grinch hat....north, or south? This morning you had me 50 and raining on xmas, now its cold and dry with feet in DC...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I looked at KCON....little better than down here with lift closer to SGZ, but still not very good.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't really matter...1-3" would cover it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look at the sounding I posted from coolwx.com. Notice how that greater than 0c bubble of air shows up in the mid levels at 00z Sunday? Snow before that point is legit, any after that is the model's delusion.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't worry about that
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Better shot of Forky becoming a mod-.....oh, wait...
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