There is not blocking. There is west atlantic ridging, which could still allow for an inland track.. The cold can and will move if it takes that track.
Just check ensembles, though I'm sure GEFS will follow suite like they usually do. Keep in mind that the EURO was a whiff, so plenty to time to sort details out.
One way to pull it off is to have N stream insert as it progresses north...like a hybrid Miller A/B deal. GFS may do that, I am not analyzing H5 at hr 156. I think Feb 2013 did that.
Having H5 close off several hundred miles south of our latitude does not scream "upper end storm" to me. Can still be big, but sell these 20"+ fantasies, which is usually the course of least regret, anyway, but def. with Miller A systems.
Regardless of range, I will sell those high end amounts of the GFS right off the bat because the best we usually do on a Miller A is like 10-20". There is a ceiling on those around here.
I do not trust Miller As for the life of me...they are to me what Miller B is to Baltimore, 9/10 times they will find a way to pork me to varying degrees. The only pure miller A off the top of my head that did not was the Megalopolis blizzard of Feb 1983....I actually got some cf naked twister in that one. The most prevalent issue with them is LBSW, but they are also more likely to take less than ideal tracks due to the longer distance traveled. Unreal how we haven't been able to buy a classic Miller B in 1.5 la nina seasons now. Save for maybe 2/1/21?
One more hit, and I'll be doing that little standing spin in place....one of the circle jerk sisters like scooter will be execute the "finish him" voice over...