It has all kinds of ULLs and ridge nodes swirling around like logs in a toilet...some just seemingly giving birth to others like one of Ginxy's puppies...
I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength.
Its emotion driven hyperbole.....there is a reason I said that the a white xmas near the coast was dubious. The Pac was always going to be relatively hostile in December.
Its not about the EURO suite, its about tropical forcing. I am confident that the pattern will turn more wintery.
The month of December was expected to prominently feature RNA.
The real irony is that the bulldog of a low out west that is the initial fly in the ointment may be a the SW that sparks our first good threat in about 11-12 days.
As far as the handling of the block...it looks like a compromise between what the GFS and EURO suite were advertising......initially, we do see the GFS scenario play out this week where they conjoin into a big ridge, but it doesn't last and ultimately the colder pattern will prevail.
Looks like the PNA gets less obnoxious (not favorable) by mid month, so that is when the watch begins....so in all fairness, I think the first 5-7 days of my original post 12/10 date will be uneventful.