40/70 Benchmark

I buy that for you.

I said this earlier tonight, Steve, but I feel as though the GFS is overdoing QPF east of the mid level lows...classic model bias. I know that you are aware, but meteorology, not modelology....any snowfall algorithm is only as good as the model output from which it is derived....so yea, I will punt the 20" in N ORH county on the GFS to the moon and back.

Its my preferred snow algorithm, but it's still merely a tool....sure, if all I did was rip and read that on my blog, then clearly I would forecast 9.7" of snow for you. I would also view more than one model....

Looks like we are going to make it it your 1/20 date of pondering whether we may waste this period.

Well, this one's number will not be retired here in MEHthuen...can tell you that. Lol

Man, the former museum man is feisty tonight

Is what never right?

Yea, maybe for N ORH country and the hills of NW CT...

Nothing wrong per se, but I myself don't really see the value in beating those large scale features at this juncture....I think the major details to iron out are the more nuanced features that we were discussing earlier this evening. But it's a weather forum...knock yourself out.

This AM was it for me. The SW came ashore and it still sucked. Now it's just ironing out the nuances from here on in...

Yea, I don't get the run to run scrutinizing at this point.

I'm so passed that...it is what it is, at this point....small wobbles in track are meaningless for most of SNE.

Yea, its fair to question snowgrowth, too with the mid levels so jacked up. Not pretty.

Why do you plan to take your aggression at scooter out on me? Lol

I don't think so.....that one downsloped the CTRV horrendously.

Not necessarily if it sleets.

I view this is more of a general, uniform WAA slug....in for like 8-10 hours, and drizzle-slot. Banding is usually more west of the mid level lows...

Agree.

QPF is often overdone east of mid level lows....but noteworthy trend.

I could see a foot there, but jackpot even with mid levels west? Where did the H85 and H7 lows track in 12/14/1992? This is where getting the mid level to at least stretch out, and if not totally redevelop on approach, would be huge..

...which brings me back to 12-16-2007.....that did not happen.

Certainly an interesting forecast. Its nice to have a system not working out perfectly, and yet not have the thread go to crap and still have great discussion.

One more note...this was not an issue in 12-16-07....the high was anchored NNW of Caribou, and it hit with an absolute wall of snow. I think that enhances frontogenesis, especially in the low levels just to the polar side of the coastal front. Now, this antecedent airmass may be a bit more impressive, but usually dry air is fairly easily overcome in intense WAA. Its seems inconsistent to to harp on how proficient the lift looks with the WAA, and then cite the high retreating as a positive to help overcome dry air. Not sure I buy that, and view the retreating high as a negative. if the WAA is that impressive, then...dry air? Really?

Absolutely fair point....but a question for this weekend, not tonight haha

Exactly. Right now, to me that is the main difference between this event and high-end WAA producers like 12-16-2007, which approached 1' over a large area.