40/70 Benchmark

Does a well coupled la nina necessarily mean a ratter en route? No. TBH, I have taken a break from long range stuff after some of the frustrating head fakes of late. I'll look again probably next week, but I am confident from everything I looked at preseason that this won't be a dud...at least not for New England. Maybe I'll need to revisit that in a couple of weeks, but cross that bridge.... Anyway, all of my stuff is judged as is....sure, I may revise my thoughts in season, but I don't touch that thesis from November....that is graded as is.

At least for out area, anyway...

I expected that more the second week of the month, so again...timing could def. be off.

I am about as confident as I will ever be with respect to anything that we will have a very mild stretch this month (January)....probably milder than Jan 2015...maybe more like 2005. But I will also go down with the ship regarding January offering some great volatility and downright wild potential. Perhaps my timing is off and it gets pushed to February, and I mix the months up, similar to what I did in 2021....this season isn't a ratter, though.

I think the initial post of this thread just about exactly one month ago captured it pretty well....hopefully things work out next month. I am surprised that the coast couldn't even muster one noteworthy snowfall from a SWFE...I didn't think it would be that shitty, but that is some bad luck mixed in. The mean H5 pattern certainly doesn't scream "virtually snowless in Boston".

Ah, the good 'ole days....back when it snowed in December and my area wasn't always dinning on scraps.

One jackpot I will be happy to concede is a grid-threatening, warm wind event the day before Xmas eve.

My hopes aren't up, but there is nothing else to even feign interest in, so...

I'll take the under for my area.

I got high 20s in Wilmington..

I'm going to hold off before acknowledging this one...I feel like I have written far too much this month for .5" of snow.

I was pretty close to that band in the Jan blizzard...def didn't get screwed

I thought you meant more imminent than that. Yea, I still expect something big at some point in January.

They were about 2 weeks apart and there is zero sign of anything of that magnitude.

Well, there is the "generational" storm that I called for in January....unfortunately its in the Great Lakes in December.

"Kind of" to me entails either nuisance crap, or slim odds of something significant. Shades still shut...

Could have easily had 12/16 and this week be big dogs.

No. My early speculation last March was el nino, but I never wrote anything off. It was apparent in my ENSO blogs last summer that it would be la nina.

Its written off in my mind.

No. Once ENSO flips it will be fast and decisive IMO. But I would argue we actually saw it take over even earlier than it was observed...if you remember, even the el nino of 18-19' was more nina like.

Yea, I mean...I went big in January, too....but you have to be mindful of allowing a preconceived notion to sink you moving forward. You need to let go of the outlook and see what is happening. Right now, early January certainly doesn't look good, but I am going to give it another week before getting too nervous about January.

That is what I said...all three of these la ninas have had the same overall tenor. Thankfully, we are done with it after this year. Modoki el nino next season...book it.

He's has been very good the past few years IMO....second to none and its not close....but he seems like he is reaching here.

His egg nog is probably phasing with a few other choice beverages right about now.....nog capturing rum and just spinning right over the Benchmark.

Cosgrove insists on comparing this coming January to 1996...I was like, I get the timing of the thaw, but there has been no snow on the coast. He had kind of a smug response to the effect of "well, winter only begins in a few days and there are events on the ensembles, so don't cancel, ok?". I just dropped it, but I don't really know what he is talking about. There is nothing apparent in sight.