40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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They mean the overall pattern.
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At least la nina will finally relinquish its grip.
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Never mind the fact that it likely needs to be done under the cover of night.
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Looks like its a bit more PNA ridging that allows that little wave to dig enough....who knows.
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I wouldn't worry much about it
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GFS is a Methuen special order.....classic Miller B-East. That said, it probably ends up more of a Miller E....as in eat shit.
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The EURO looks more par for the course for Methuen.
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False. Pacific looked epic.
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The future is uncertain, and when it hasn't snowed yet for much of the region, the default setting is reverse psych. I have 2" on the year after a -6SD NAO block..yea, I lost my shit, but you have to get over it and try to be objective moving forward.
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Yea, same conclusion as me, only different angle to get there. Thanks.
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The pattern will not be held in place by SST anomalies....they can help to sustain when everything else is favorable.
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Bingo....the whole "jet retraction" concept eludes me, but I am confident that the Pacific will be good in January. If that is what delivers, then sign me up. Care to explain the jet retraction stuff?
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I've been expecting pretty normal snowfall since November....when many expected the epic December, and I still do now....while the bipolar pendulum swings towards "it will never snow again".
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Feb 2015?
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Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.
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You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.
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More favored in eastern QBO, which is part of the reason that I didn't expect one.
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Remind me to stay home behind locked doors that week.
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I only worded it that way because I had just made a post to the effect that although the season may play out similarly, its unwise to anticipate as much snow as we had in 2010-2011 and December is a good example of why.
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Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.
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Ditto.
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I have 2"...still feel good about at least reaching normal, which is in the low 60s.
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The only two that are of much relevance are 2021-2022 and 2010-2011.
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I try to get out a December wrap up and January update today or tomorrow.
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Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit. I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.
