40/70 Benchmark

This is why I give myself two kicks at the can before go-time....obviously, pro forecasts are even more fluid.

The only system that I can recall producing widespread amounts in excess of one foot when the primary vehicle for the production of precipitation is WAA with decaying mid levels flying west is 3-14-93...Will can correct me if I am wrong on that.

Fair point, but I feel like at this point where are getting into the type of considerations better suited for short lead times....I think the initial course of least regret considering the mid levels it to begin conservative, and if it looks extraordinary enough at the 11th hour, fine..

No one is getting 12-18" in SNE...only spot to approach a foot will be the higher terrain of Berkshires. You would need some extraordinary WAA dynamics for that..this isn't 3/4/1993. Plus, don't forget....the high is hauling ass to the east...its not remaining NW of Caribou like 12/16/2007, so that will limit the front ender, too. Could be some slight enhancement near the CF during the WAA burst, but I can explore that more for Sunday's map.

12-18" where??

The mid levels are a HUGE red flag in this.....its a limiting factor that is next to impossible to overcome if you are looking for excessive snowfall amounts. 1) They are flying west, so you not only have warm air advection, which is the primary mechanism for precipitation for us...but you also have a dry slot that will shut off precip shortly after change over well inland. 2) The mid level mechanics/dynamics will be in decay on approach, which would still be a limiting factor even if it were tracking farther east. This will be a nice, lateral thump of WAA driven snowfall for a several hours, and that is it....you warm and dry out in the mid levels and its done.

I always do a first call 72-84 hours out.

Ugh...hadn't seen this. Sorry to be redundant.

Same page....I hit on both of these aspects in my first call.

Kev must have early onset dementia...always disoriented.

Disregarded for now.

Unfortunately, Henry's weather looks pretty boring on Monday.

Final Call on Sunday.. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/first-call-for-major-mess-likely-tuesday.html

Agree.

Technically, yea. The N stream phases into the back side of the trough, which tilts it negative and slings the s stream SW up the coast.

Aside from some weenie PTSD derived superstition about when to start threads....

Nothing wrong with your original post, frustration not withstanding. It was actually some stellar, spot on analysis.

I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much.

I agree wholesale with this.

The bottom line is that whenever it feels as though a positive development is emerging with respect to this system, wait for the catch.

Don't worry be ginxy

@White Gorilladisagrees

Yea, okay..agree....but I think 12" is pushing it. That high would need to trend better fast BC I doubt we wil see the necessary mid level changes to drive those amounts.

I think that is a reasonable ceiling for my area.

LOL Load Blown Southwest...just a raunchy vernacular for occlusion.