40/70 Benchmark

I'll be down the cape Sunday, so hopefully a bit cooler there.

How many days of the month did you take two or more poops?

What did you guys base that off of back then?

I wasn't doing outlooks back then, but if you read my stuff last fall then you would know that 2010-2011 was my top ENSO analog, which should tell you that it isn't a fluke that that winter wasn't a dud. It was central based, but it wasn't a modoki....it was actually biased a bit to the east end of the spectrum. I would forecast a decent winter given those same parameters today, as I did last season. In hindsight, last season ended up even more east based, which saved us from a total train wreck because the sun ultimately porked us with respect to the poles. Remember, a well coupled ENSO event is not necessarily bad if the forcing is in the right place, though often times well coupled ENSO events have hostile forcing because the most highly coupled events are usually east-based el nino events and modoki la nina.

The composite of those 4 triple-decker cool ENSO seasons is remarkably normal, temperature wise, and slightly drier than normal for our region.

My early hunch is that the middle of portion of winter may be rather mild and lean, though not exotically warm on average...maybe another one of those nocturnally driven warmer periods that have become so prevalent in today's climate. I feel most confident in a favorable stretch in December and possibly another in March.

Agree.

2012-2013 is actually another example of a third year cool ENSO event...again, cool-neutral ENSO that continues the theme of weaker having a happy ending, so I will be watching for more sign of that later this fall.

Another thing to watch is kind of tied into it remaining weak, but if we see a rapid demise of la nina, it could lead to some increased variability late in the season. A couple of the triple-decker cool ENSO analogs had late season blocking, namely 1957 (cool neutral ENSO) and 2001 (weak modoki la nina). 1976 (strong and basin-wide) did not, possibly because it was a much stronger la nina.

La nina remaining weaker and or east-based for a higher likelihood of seeing intervals of poleward Aleutian ridging like last year. Its early, but right now I am pretty confident that la nina will be more basin wide than last season, so it will need to remain relatively weak in order to provide us with the greatest likelihood of some Pacific variability (favorable interludes). I think a "big winter" is pretty unlikely this year, but you def. want it to remain weak if it isn't going to be very east based in order to have a shot at that.

You should come to learn that anything @snowman19 posts is supportive of a milder winter ....if you see him mention a bottle of Windex in the winter thread, you don't need to know why, but just know that it's somehow correlated to a shitty winter.

That Canadian graphic screams +NAO to me...no shock there.

Happens every season....always a few posters who get carried away with ENSO and include hyper-verbiage in every post referencing anything associated with it...when the dust settles, any moderate peak will be early on and it will be weak for the vast majority of boreal winter 2022-2023.

I feel like this will be one of those relatively inactive seasons that will leave quite an impression, nonetheless....it only takes a storm or two, and the heat ridge ultimately retrogressing is going to leave the east coast vulnerable later August into September.

I had 12 days of 90+ during July and a mere 1.41" of rain.

Agree.

Ricky?

Well, I average about 63" 2018-2019 I had about 48" 2019-2020 About 44" 2020-2021 Like 53" 2021-2022 Last year was like 46"

I know Cosgrove is favoring some east coast activity later this season...we'll see. That is always a long shot, but following his musings for a few years and he has been about as skilled as they come.

Save the precip for December.

I've been in a rough patch locally for several years now, despite the region as a whole doing okay....I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018.

I would agree that nothing is in favor of a big season down there, but I don't think you should necessarily be absolutely resigned to a horrendous season, either. I mean, if you feel you need to in order to mentally prepare yourself, I get it....but a pretty average season is well within the realm of plausibility....too early to tell. But like I said, I would be surprised if you guys didn't kill it in 2023-2024...in all seriousness. Anything this season is gravy.

Its borderline weak/moderate.

I agree.

I had .22" in a brief downpour last night.